Apple’s efforts to source DRAM from China’s CXMT face steep regulatory and geopolitical barriers that explain the market’s 77% implied probability of no purchases in 2026. The company has lobbied the Trump administration since May for assurances against Entity List placement and has begun testing CXMT chips for China-market devices amid AI-driven memory price spikes, yet CXMT’s fabs operate near 95% utilization with capacity fully committed through 2027 to domestic customers. National security concerns, precedent from the blocked 2022 YMTC effort, and the absence of confirmed supply agreements or approvals keep trader consensus tilted toward no meaningful volume commitments by year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
22% Chance
$21,752 Vol.
$21,752 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
22% Chance
$21,752 Vol.
$21,752 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Apple’s efforts to source DRAM from China’s CXMT face steep regulatory and geopolitical barriers that explain the market’s 77% implied probability of no purchases in 2026. The company has lobbied the Trump administration since May for assurances against Entity List placement and has begun testing CXMT chips for China-market devices amid AI-driven memory price spikes, yet CXMT’s fabs operate near 95% utilization with capacity fully committed through 2027 to domestic customers. National security concerns, precedent from the blocked 2022 YMTC effort, and the absence of confirmed supply agreements or approvals keep trader consensus tilted toward no meaningful volume commitments by year-end.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
Volumen
$21,752Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Apple’s efforts to source DRAM from China’s CXMT face steep regulatory and geopolitical barriers that explain the market’s 77% implied probability of no purchases in 2026. The company has lobbied the Trump administration since May for assurances against Entity List placement and has begun testing CXMT chips for China-market devices amid AI-driven memory price spikes, yet CXMT’s fabs operate near 95% utilization with capacity fully committed through 2027 to domestic customers. National security concerns, precedent from the blocked 2022 YMTC effort, and the absence of confirmed supply agreements or approvals keep trader consensus tilted toward no meaningful volume commitments by year-end.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$21,752Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Apple’s efforts to source DRAM from China’s CXMT face steep regulatory and geopolitical barriers that explain the market’s 77% implied probability of no purchases in 2026. The company has lobbied the Trump administration since May for assurances against Entity List placement and has begun testing CXMT chips for China-market devices amid AI-driven memory price spikes, yet CXMT’s fabs operate near 95% utilization with capacity fully committed through 2027 to domestic customers. National security concerns, precedent from the blocked 2022 YMTC effort, and the absence of confirmed supply agreements or approvals keep trader consensus tilted toward no meaningful volume commitments by year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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