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Geopolitik·Operativ

Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?

icon for Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?
Geopolitik·Operativ

Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?

12% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
12% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 89% for an Iranian agent being formally charged by US federal or state authorities before May 31, driven by the absence of new Department of Justice (DOJ) indictments or announcements in the past month amid ongoing tensions. The latest major legal action was the March 6 conviction of Asif Merchant, a Pakistani IRGC-linked operative, on terrorism and murder-for-hire charges in a foiled plot targeting US politicians including Donald Trump. Recent related developments, like a May 13 guilty plea by an Iranian-American for smuggling an IRGC-tied individual into the US and April arrests for Iran-backed arms trafficking, fall short of qualifying as agent charges. With the deadline approaching and no visible procedural momentum such as unsealed indictments or court filings, traders see slim odds of a shift barring late-breaking enforcement action.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$4,205
Enddatum
31. Mai 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 20, 2026, 5:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 89% for an Iranian agent being formally charged by US federal or state authorities before May 31, driven by the absence of new Department of Justice (DOJ) indictments or announcements in the past month amid ongoing tensions. The latest major legal action was the March 6 conviction of Asif Merchant, a Pakistani IRGC-linked operative, on terrorism and murder-for-hire charges in a foiled plot targeting US politicians including Donald Trump. Recent related developments, like a May 13 guilty plea by an Iranian-American for smuggling an IRGC-tied individual into the US and April arrests for Iran-backed arms trafficking, fall short of qualifying as agent charges. With the deadline approaching and no visible procedural momentum such as unsealed indictments or court filings, traders see slim odds of a shift barring late-breaking enforcement action.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$4,205
Enddatum
31. Mai 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 20, 2026, 5:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket, auf dem Händler „Ja"- oder „Nein"-Anteile kaufen und verkaufen, je nachdem, ob sie glauben, dass dieses Ereignis eintreten wird. Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit laut Community liegt bei 12% für „Yes". Wird „Ja" beispielsweise bei 12¢ gehandelt, schätzt der Markt die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Eintretens auf 12%. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen und Informationen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Apr 20, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?" zu handeln, wählen Sie einfach, ob Sie glauben, dass die Antwort „Ja" oder „Nein" lautet. Jede Seite hat einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes widerspiegelt. Geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Wenn Sie „Ja"-Anteile kaufen und das Ergebnis als „Ja" aufgelöst wird, zahlt jeder Anteil $1 aus. Wird es als „Nein" aufgelöst, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen, um einen Gewinn zu sichern oder einen Verlust zu begrenzen.

Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit für „Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?" liegt bei 12% für „Yes". Das bedeutet, die Polymarket-Community glaubt derzeit, dass eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 12% besteht, dass dieses Ereignis eintritt. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit auf Basis tatsächlicher Handelsgeschäfte aktualisiert und liefern ein ständig aktualisiertes Signal dessen, was der Markt erwartet.

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