Current National Hurricane Center outlooks indicate no tropical cyclone formation is expected in the Atlantic basin over the next seven days, with zero active systems and suppressed conditions tied to an emerging El Niño pattern that increases wind shear. This aligns with the official season start on June 1 and long-term climatology showing only rare pre-June hurricanes, typically limited to subtropical or short-lived systems in the Gulf or western Caribbean. Traders assign 98.4% implied probability to “No” because atmospheric stability and lack of seed disturbances make rapid intensification by May 31 highly improbable. A late-May disturbance could still emerge if sea-surface temperatures spike or steering patterns shift unexpectedly, though model consensus offers little support for such development before the calendar turns.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWird sich bis zum 31. Mai ein Hurrikan bilden?
Ja
$51,348 Vol.
$51,348 Vol.
Ja
$51,348 Vol.
$51,348 Vol.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Current National Hurricane Center outlooks indicate no tropical cyclone formation is expected in the Atlantic basin over the next seven days, with zero active systems and suppressed conditions tied to an emerging El Niño pattern that increases wind shear. This aligns with the official season start on June 1 and long-term climatology showing only rare pre-June hurricanes, typically limited to subtropical or short-lived systems in the Gulf or western Caribbean. Traders assign 98.4% implied probability to “No” because atmospheric stability and lack of seed disturbances make rapid intensification by May 31 highly improbable. A late-May disturbance could still emerge if sea-surface temperatures spike or steering patterns shift unexpectedly, though model consensus offers little support for such development before the calendar turns.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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