Andy Burnham’s cabinet, formed in late July 2026 after Keir Starmer’s resignation and leadership transition, features several returning or newly promoted ministers with prior tensions inside the Labour Party. Trader consensus prices “Other” highest at 50 percent, reflecting the range of possible exits through resignation, demotion, or policy friction in a still-settling government. John Healey leads named options at 12.5 percent, consistent with his June 2026 resignation from the defence brief over spending disputes and his subsequent surprise appointment as chancellor, a role that often draws scrutiny. Miatta Fahnbulleh at 10.3 percent and others such as Alex Norris or Lucy Powell sit lower, tied to their recent elevation or narrower portfolios. No major departures have occurred since the July reshuffle, so probabilities rest on individual histories, departmental pressures, and the absence of a clear frontrunner for the next change.