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Who will 538 project as favorite on Friday?

Market icon

Who will 538 project as favorite on Friday?

Trump

>99% chance
Polymarket

$44,824 Vol.

Trump

>99% chance
Polymarket

$44,824 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Biden” if Joe Biden has a higher probability of winning the US presidential election than Donald Trump according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast for the day of July 5, 2024. This market will resolve to “Trump” if Donald Trump has a higher probability of winning the US presidential election than Joe Biden according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast for the day of July 5, 2024. If Biden and Trump have equal odds, this market will resolve "50-50".

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue and red trend lines for this market's resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve according to the datapoints for July 5 as soon as datapoints for July 6 become available. This market may not resolve until the July 6 datapoints are available. If no datapoints for July 5 are available by July 9, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous figures to July 5.

Please note the resolution refers to the odds of each candidate winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Trump 57 times out of 100"). The listed number of simulations out of 1,000 won by each candidate will NOT be considered.
Volumen
$44,824
Enddatum
Jul 5, 2024
Markt eröffnet
Jul 2, 2024, 6:20 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Biden” if Joe Biden has a higher probability of winning the US presidential election than Donald Trump according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast for the day of July 5, 2024. This market will resolve to “Trump” if Donald Trump has a higher probability of winning the US presidential election than Joe Biden according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast for the day of July 5, 2024. If Biden and Trump have equal odds, this market will resolve "50-50". The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue and red trend lines for this market's resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve according to the datapoints for July 5 as soon as datapoints for July 6 become available. This market may not resolve until the July 6 datapoints are available. If no datapoints for July 5 are available by July 9, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous figures to July 5. Please note the resolution refers to the odds of each candidate winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Trump 57 times out of 100"). The listed number of simulations out of 1,000 won by each candidate will NOT be considered.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Trump

Umstritten

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Trump

Umstritten

Endgültiges Ergebnis: Trump

This market will resolve to “Biden” if Joe Biden has a higher probability of winning the US presidential election than Donald Trump according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast for the day of July 5, 2024. This market will resolve to “Trump” if Donald Trump has a higher probability of winning the US presidential election than Joe Biden according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast for the day of July 5, 2024. If Biden and Trump have equal odds, this market will resolve "50-50".

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue and red trend lines for this market's resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve according to the datapoints for July 5 as soon as datapoints for July 6 become available. This market may not resolve until the July 6 datapoints are available. If no datapoints for July 5 are available by July 9, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous figures to July 5.

Please note the resolution refers to the odds of each candidate winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Trump 57 times out of 100"). The listed number of simulations out of 1,000 won by each candidate will NOT be considered.
Volumen
$44,824
Enddatum
Jul 5, 2024
Markt eröffnet
Jul 2, 2024, 6:20 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Biden” if Joe Biden has a higher probability of winning the US presidential election than Donald Trump according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast for the day of July 5, 2024. This market will resolve to “Trump” if Donald Trump has a higher probability of winning the US presidential election than Joe Biden according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast for the day of July 5, 2024. If Biden and Trump have equal odds, this market will resolve "50-50". The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue and red trend lines for this market's resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve according to the datapoints for July 5 as soon as datapoints for July 6 become available. This market may not resolve until the July 6 datapoints are available. If no datapoints for July 5 are available by July 9, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous figures to July 5. Please note the resolution refers to the odds of each candidate winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Trump 57 times out of 100"). The listed number of simulations out of 1,000 won by each candidate will NOT be considered.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Trump

Umstritten

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Trump

Umstritten

Endgültiges Ergebnis: Trump

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Who will 538 project as favorite on Friday? " ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 2 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Who will 538 project as favorite on Friday? " mit 100%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 100¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 100% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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