Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million domestic opening has anchored trader consensus around established blockbusters, yet the 53.5% implied probability for it and near-even odds for multiple unnamed contenders underscore the uncertainty surrounding later 2026 releases. Avengers: Doomsday’s $44.5% share reflects its holiday positioning, strong presales, and MCU crossover appeal as the likeliest challenger for second place, while low-single-digit odds on Dune: Messiah, Toy Story 5, and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping highlight more modest tracking. Upcoming chart updates, final presale data, and December release performance will serve as key swing factors in this tightly contested market.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWelcher Film hat das zweitgrößte Eröffnungswochenende im Jahr 2026?
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 54%
Avengers: Doomsday 45%
Dune: Messiah <1%
Toy Story 5 <1%
$104,183 Vol.
$104,183 Vol.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
54%
Avengers: Doomsday
45%
Dune: Messiah
<1%
Toy Story 5
<1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 54%
Avengers: Doomsday 45%
Dune: Messiah <1%
Toy Story 5 <1%
$104,183 Vol.
$104,183 Vol.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
54%
Avengers: Doomsday
45%
Dune: Messiah
<1%
Toy Story 5
<1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 23, 2026, 11:25 AM ET
Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million domestic opening has anchored trader consensus around established blockbusters, yet the 53.5% implied probability for it and near-even odds for multiple unnamed contenders underscore the uncertainty surrounding later 2026 releases. Avengers: Doomsday’s $44.5% share reflects its holiday positioning, strong presales, and MCU crossover appeal as the likeliest challenger for second place, while low-single-digit odds on Dune: Messiah, Toy Story 5, and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping highlight more modest tracking. Upcoming chart updates, final presale data, and December release performance will serve as key swing factors in this tightly contested market.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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