Heightened US-Iran tensions and active naval blockade enforcement have sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with AIS-visible transits running at roughly 10% of pre-crisis levels and multiple tanker attacks reported in early October 2026. US Central Command assets, including carrier strike groups and destroyers, maintain a visible presence to enforce sanctions and redirect vessels, directly elevating risks to oil flows that normally account for a large share of global seaborne crude. This has supported Brent crude prices above $100 per barrel in recent sessions while lifting tanker charter rates and marine insurance premiums. European navies have signaled limited interest in escort or minesweeping operations, though concrete deployments remain uncertain ahead of potential diplomatic shifts. Key upcoming catalysts include any escalation in IRGC activity, further US carrier rotations, or OPEC+ production responses that could alter implied probabilities for additional national naval transits by year-end.