Google's Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash models drive the 87.5% implied probability through consistent top rankings on text-to-video benchmarks for prompt adherence, native synchronized audio, 4K output, and photorealistic motion as of mid-2026. Recent integrations into the Gemini API, Flow studio, and Google Vids have expanded accessibility and demonstrated multimodal editing capabilities that competitors have not matched at scale. While ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 leads certain image-to-video arenas and Kling 3.0 excels in value and motion, traders view Google's overall production quality and ecosystem as decisive by the end-of-September cutoff. No major new releases from rivals have shifted sentiment in the past month, though ongoing arena votes and any last-minute capability updates could still influence final resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertGoogle 86%
Luma AI 3.6%
Runway 3.3%
ByteDance 1.3%
$21,284 Vol.
$21,284 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
86%
Luma AI
4%
Runway
3%
ByteDance
1%
MiniMax
1%
Pixverse
1%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
1%
Pruna
1%
Kandinsky
1%
Lightricks
1%
Genmo AI
1%
Pika
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
KlingAI
<1%
Tencent
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
Google 86%
Luma AI 3.6%
Runway 3.3%
ByteDance 1.3%
$21,284 Vol.
$21,284 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
$14,053 Vol.
86%
Luma AI
$400 Vol.
4%
Runway
$547 Vol.
3%
ByteDance
$982 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$645 Vol.
1%
Pixverse
$370 Vol.
1%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
$365 Vol.
1%
Pruna
$399 Vol.
1%
Kandinsky
$370 Vol.
1%
Lightricks
$422 Vol.
1%
Genmo AI
$436 Vol.
1%
Pika
$453 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$378 Vol.
<1%
KlingAI
$413 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$350 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$458 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$246 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash models drive the 87.5% implied probability through consistent top rankings on text-to-video benchmarks for prompt adherence, native synchronized audio, 4K output, and photorealistic motion as of mid-2026. Recent integrations into the Gemini API, Flow studio, and Google Vids have expanded accessibility and demonstrated multimodal editing capabilities that competitors have not matched at scale. While ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 leads certain image-to-video arenas and Kling 3.0 excels in value and motion, traders view Google's overall production quality and ecosystem as decisive by the end-of-September cutoff. No major new releases from rivals have shifted sentiment in the past month, though ongoing arena votes and any last-minute capability updates could still influence final resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markt eröffnet: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volumen
$21,284Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash models drive the 87.5% implied probability through consistent top rankings on text-to-video benchmarks for prompt adherence, native synchronized audio, 4K output, and photorealistic motion as of mid-2026. Recent integrations into the Gemini API, Flow studio, and Google Vids have expanded accessibility and demonstrated multimodal editing capabilities that competitors have not matched at scale. While ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 leads certain image-to-video arenas and Kling 3.0 excels in value and motion, traders view Google's overall production quality and ecosystem as decisive by the end-of-September cutoff. No major new releases from rivals have shifted sentiment in the past month, though ongoing arena votes and any last-minute capability updates could still influence final resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$21,284Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Google's Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash models drive the 87.5% implied probability through consistent top rankings on text-to-video benchmarks for prompt adherence, native synchronized audio, 4K output, and photorealistic motion as of mid-2026. Recent integrations into the Gemini API, Flow studio, and Google Vids have expanded accessibility and demonstrated multimodal editing capabilities that competitors have not matched at scale. While ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 leads certain image-to-video arenas and Kling 3.0 excels in value and motion, traders view Google's overall production quality and ecosystem as decisive by the end-of-September cutoff. No major new releases from rivals have shifted sentiment in the past month, though ongoing arena votes and any last-minute capability updates could still influence final resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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