Google's leading 65% implied probability stems from its Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni series consistently topping 2026 text-to-video leaderboards for prompt adherence, native synchronized audio, and multimodal input handling. Recent August updates to Gemini Omni 1.1 Flash added scene extension, first-and-last-frame controls, and 4K upscaling, strengthening consistency for longer outputs through the Gemini and Flow platforms. ByteDance's Seedance 2.5 competes closely on dynamic camera motion and 30-second clips with extensive references, while models from Kuaishou, Alibaba, and MiniMax trail in broad arena scores. Traders view Google's ecosystem integration and iterative refinements as decisive ahead of the October resolution, though rapid competitor advances could shift sentiment.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertGoogle 65%
ByteDance 12%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH 2.9%
Meta 1.4%
$37,462 Vol.
$37,462 Vol.
31. Okt. 2026
65%
ByteDance
12%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
3%
Meta
1%
Pixverse
1%
Tencent
1%
Kandinsky
<1%
KlingAI
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Runway
<1%
Pruna
<1%
Luma AI
<1%
Lightricks
<1%
Pika
<1%
Genmo AI
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Google 65%
ByteDance 12%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH 2.9%
Meta 1.4%
$37,462 Vol.
$37,462 Vol.
31. Okt. 2026
$25,229 Vol.
65%
ByteDance
$5,091 Vol.
12%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
$777 Vol.
3%
Meta
$507 Vol.
1%
Pixverse
$431 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$466 Vol.
1%
Kandinsky
$431 Vol.
<1%
KlingAI
$583 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$499 Vol.
<1%
Runway
$423 Vol.
<1%
Pruna
$356 Vol.
<1%
Luma AI
$514 Vol.
<1%
Lightricks
$432 Vol.
<1%
Pika
$475 Vol.
<1%
Genmo AI
$448 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$373 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$426 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's leading 65% implied probability stems from its Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni series consistently topping 2026 text-to-video leaderboards for prompt adherence, native synchronized audio, and multimodal input handling. Recent August updates to Gemini Omni 1.1 Flash added scene extension, first-and-last-frame controls, and 4K upscaling, strengthening consistency for longer outputs through the Gemini and Flow platforms. ByteDance's Seedance 2.5 competes closely on dynamic camera motion and 30-second clips with extensive references, while models from Kuaishou, Alibaba, and MiniMax trail in broad arena scores. Traders view Google's ecosystem integration and iterative refinements as decisive ahead of the October resolution, though rapid competitor advances could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markt eröffnet: Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Volumen
$37,462Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's leading 65% implied probability stems from its Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni series consistently topping 2026 text-to-video leaderboards for prompt adherence, native synchronized audio, and multimodal input handling. Recent August updates to Gemini Omni 1.1 Flash added scene extension, first-and-last-frame controls, and 4K upscaling, strengthening consistency for longer outputs through the Gemini and Flow platforms. ByteDance's Seedance 2.5 competes closely on dynamic camera motion and 30-second clips with extensive references, while models from Kuaishou, Alibaba, and MiniMax trail in broad arena scores. Traders view Google's ecosystem integration and iterative refinements as decisive ahead of the October resolution, though rapid competitor advances could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$37,462Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Google's leading 65% implied probability stems from its Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni series consistently topping 2026 text-to-video leaderboards for prompt adherence, native synchronized audio, and multimodal input handling. Recent August updates to Gemini Omni 1.1 Flash added scene extension, first-and-last-frame controls, and 4K upscaling, strengthening consistency for longer outputs through the Gemini and Flow platforms. ByteDance's Seedance 2.5 competes closely on dynamic camera motion and 30-second clips with extensive references, while models from Kuaishou, Alibaba, and MiniMax trail in broad arena scores. Traders view Google's ecosystem integration and iterative refinements as decisive ahead of the October resolution, though rapid competitor advances could shift sentiment.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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