OpenAI’s recent launch of GPT-6 Astra on September 3 has driven its 64.6% market-implied odds by quickly claiming the top Code Arena WebDev leaderboard position with a 1,797 score, 35 points ahead of Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1. The crowdsourced Elo-style benchmark evaluates agentic frontend coding through multi-step reasoning, tool use, and iterative web-app workflows based on over 650,000 community votes. This performance edge in real-world web development tasks has shifted trader sentiment, as prior Anthropic leadership narrowed after the release. Chinese labs like Alibaba’s Qwen and Moonshot’s Kimi trail with scores in the mid-1,600s, while Google, Meta, and others sit further back. With resolution tied to the end-of-October leaderboard, any new model updates or benchmark volatility could still influence outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertOpenAI 65.8%
Anthropic 20%
Alibaba 7.6%
SpaceXAI 1.3%
$64,563 Vol.
$64,563 Vol.
31. Okt. 2026
OpenAI
66%
Anthropic
20%
Alibaba
8%
SpaceXAI
1%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
1%
Tencent
1%
<1%
Meta
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Poolside
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
OpenAI 65.8%
Anthropic 20%
Alibaba 7.6%
SpaceXAI 1.3%
$64,563 Vol.
$64,563 Vol.
31. Okt. 2026
OpenAI
$2,821 Vol.
66%
Anthropic
$48,998 Vol.
20%
Alibaba
$1,888 Vol.
8%
SpaceXAI
$806 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$1,701 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$779 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$771 Vol.
1%
$1,582 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$777 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$653 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$819 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$668 Vol.
<1%
Poolside
$677 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$639 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$387 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$596 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s recent launch of GPT-6 Astra on September 3 has driven its 64.6% market-implied odds by quickly claiming the top Code Arena WebDev leaderboard position with a 1,797 score, 35 points ahead of Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1. The crowdsourced Elo-style benchmark evaluates agentic frontend coding through multi-step reasoning, tool use, and iterative web-app workflows based on over 650,000 community votes. This performance edge in real-world web development tasks has shifted trader sentiment, as prior Anthropic leadership narrowed after the release. Chinese labs like Alibaba’s Qwen and Moonshot’s Kimi trail with scores in the mid-1,600s, while Google, Meta, and others sit further back. With resolution tied to the end-of-October leaderboard, any new model updates or benchmark volatility could still influence outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markt eröffnet: Aug 12, 2026, 7:56 PM ET
Volumen
$64,563Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 7:56 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s recent launch of GPT-6 Astra on September 3 has driven its 64.6% market-implied odds by quickly claiming the top Code Arena WebDev leaderboard position with a 1,797 score, 35 points ahead of Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1. The crowdsourced Elo-style benchmark evaluates agentic frontend coding through multi-step reasoning, tool use, and iterative web-app workflows based on over 650,000 community votes. This performance edge in real-world web development tasks has shifted trader sentiment, as prior Anthropic leadership narrowed after the release. Chinese labs like Alibaba’s Qwen and Moonshot’s Kimi trail with scores in the mid-1,600s, while Google, Meta, and others sit further back. With resolution tied to the end-of-October leaderboard, any new model updates or benchmark volatility could still influence outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$64,563Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 7:56 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s recent launch of GPT-6 Astra on September 3 has driven its 64.6% market-implied odds by quickly claiming the top Code Arena WebDev leaderboard position with a 1,797 score, 35 points ahead of Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1. The crowdsourced Elo-style benchmark evaluates agentic frontend coding through multi-step reasoning, tool use, and iterative web-app workflows based on over 650,000 community votes. This performance edge in real-world web development tasks has shifted trader sentiment, as prior Anthropic leadership narrowed after the release. Chinese labs like Alibaba’s Qwen and Moonshot’s Kimi trail with scores in the mid-1,600s, while Google, Meta, and others sit further back. With resolution tied to the end-of-October leaderboard, any new model updates or benchmark volatility could still influence outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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