Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and related variants have posted the highest LiveBench overall scores in recent September 2026 snapshots, reaching around 84-85% through strong reasoning, coding, and agentic task results that outpace OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and o-series entries. This positions Anthropic with an 88% market-implied probability as traders price in sustained frontier leadership from verified benchmark updates. OpenAI sits at just 5.1% amid narrower gaps on key categories, while Meta, Google, Alibaba, Moonshot, and other labs remain at 0.1-50% due to lower demonstrated scores and less frequent top placements. With the September 30 resolution approaching, any final leaderboard refresh before the cutoff could shift the outcome, though current data sustains the heavy consensus around Anthropic's edge in large language model capabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 89%
OpenAI 5.1%
SpaceXAI <1%
Google <1%
$58,326 Vol.
$58,326 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
Anthropic
89%
OpenAI
5%
SpaceXAI
<1%
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 89%
OpenAI 5.1%
SpaceXAI <1%
Google <1%
$58,326 Vol.
$58,326 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
Anthropic
$18,228 Vol.
89%
OpenAI
$13,465 Vol.
5%
SpaceXAI
$2,547 Vol.
<1%
$2,677 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$2,091 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$2,304 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$2,081 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$706 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$2,337 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$989 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$737 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$836 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$681 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$790 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$722 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,233 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$2,467 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,108 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$806 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$488 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,031 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and related variants have posted the highest LiveBench overall scores in recent September 2026 snapshots, reaching around 84-85% through strong reasoning, coding, and agentic task results that outpace OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and o-series entries. This positions Anthropic with an 88% market-implied probability as traders price in sustained frontier leadership from verified benchmark updates. OpenAI sits at just 5.1% amid narrower gaps on key categories, while Meta, Google, Alibaba, Moonshot, and other labs remain at 0.1-50% due to lower demonstrated scores and less frequent top placements. With the September 30 resolution approaching, any final leaderboard refresh before the cutoff could shift the outcome, though current data sustains the heavy consensus around Anthropic's edge in large language model capabilities.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Markt eröffnet: Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Volumen
$58,326Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://livebench.ai/Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and related variants have posted the highest LiveBench overall scores in recent September 2026 snapshots, reaching around 84-85% through strong reasoning, coding, and agentic task results that outpace OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and o-series entries. This positions Anthropic with an 88% market-implied probability as traders price in sustained frontier leadership from verified benchmark updates. OpenAI sits at just 5.1% amid narrower gaps on key categories, while Meta, Google, Alibaba, Moonshot, and other labs remain at 0.1-50% due to lower demonstrated scores and less frequent top placements. With the September 30 resolution approaching, any final leaderboard refresh before the cutoff could shift the outcome, though current data sustains the heavy consensus around Anthropic's edge in large language model capabilities.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volumen
$58,326Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://livebench.ai/Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and related variants have posted the highest LiveBench overall scores in recent September 2026 snapshots, reaching around 84-85% through strong reasoning, coding, and agentic task results that outpace OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and o-series entries. This positions Anthropic with an 88% market-implied probability as traders price in sustained frontier leadership from verified benchmark updates. OpenAI sits at just 5.1% amid narrower gaps on key categories, while Meta, Google, Alibaba, Moonshot, and other labs remain at 0.1-50% due to lower demonstrated scores and less frequent top placements. With the September 30 resolution approaching, any final leaderboard refresh before the cutoff could shift the outcome, though current data sustains the heavy consensus around Anthropic's edge in large language model capabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen