Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants currently lead or rank near the top on recent LiveBench snapshots through strong results in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, driving the 82.5% market-implied odds for the company to hold the overall best model by end of October. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and o-series models trail closely in some evaluations but sit at just 14% odds, reflecting trader views that further scaling or fine-tuning from Anthropic will maintain the edge over the next six weeks. Chinese labs including Moonshot, DeepSeek, Alibaba, and Z.ai post competitive open-weight entries yet remain at low single-digit probabilities amid narrower gaps in contamination-free benchmarks. Key upcoming catalysts include any new frontier releases or LiveBench updates before the October 31 resolution, where even modest capability gains could shift the narrow leaderboard margins.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 83%
OpenAI 14%
StepFun <1%
Moonshot <1%
$21,068 Vol.
$21,068 Vol.
31. Okt. 2026
Anthropic
83%
OpenAI
14%
StepFun
1%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
1%
Nvidia
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Meta
<1%
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 83%
OpenAI 14%
StepFun <1%
Moonshot <1%
$21,068 Vol.
$21,068 Vol.
31. Okt. 2026
Anthropic
$9,201 Vol.
83%
OpenAI
$3,197 Vol.
14%
StepFun
$445 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$465 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$433 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$443 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$435 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$492 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$498 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$471 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$459 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$386 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$481 Vol.
<1%
$411 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$494 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$481 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$492 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$445 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$449 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$457 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$431 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants currently lead or rank near the top on recent LiveBench snapshots through strong results in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, driving the 82.5% market-implied odds for the company to hold the overall best model by end of October. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and o-series models trail closely in some evaluations but sit at just 14% odds, reflecting trader views that further scaling or fine-tuning from Anthropic will maintain the edge over the next six weeks. Chinese labs including Moonshot, DeepSeek, Alibaba, and Z.ai post competitive open-weight entries yet remain at low single-digit probabilities amid narrower gaps in contamination-free benchmarks. Key upcoming catalysts include any new frontier releases or LiveBench updates before the October 31 resolution, where even modest capability gains could shift the narrow leaderboard margins.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Markt eröffnet: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volumen
$21,068Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants currently lead or rank near the top on recent LiveBench snapshots through strong results in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, driving the 82.5% market-implied odds for the company to hold the overall best model by end of October. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and o-series models trail closely in some evaluations but sit at just 14% odds, reflecting trader views that further scaling or fine-tuning from Anthropic will maintain the edge over the next six weeks. Chinese labs including Moonshot, DeepSeek, Alibaba, and Z.ai post competitive open-weight entries yet remain at low single-digit probabilities amid narrower gaps in contamination-free benchmarks. Key upcoming catalysts include any new frontier releases or LiveBench updates before the October 31 resolution, where even modest capability gains could shift the narrow leaderboard margins.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volumen
$21,068Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants currently lead or rank near the top on recent LiveBench snapshots through strong results in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, driving the 82.5% market-implied odds for the company to hold the overall best model by end of October. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and o-series models trail closely in some evaluations but sit at just 14% odds, reflecting trader views that further scaling or fine-tuning from Anthropic will maintain the edge over the next six weeks. Chinese labs including Moonshot, DeepSeek, Alibaba, and Z.ai post competitive open-weight entries yet remain at low single-digit probabilities amid narrower gaps in contamination-free benchmarks. Key upcoming catalysts include any new frontier releases or LiveBench updates before the October 31 resolution, where even modest capability gains could shift the narrow leaderboard margins.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen