Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 release on September 1 has solidified its lead on LiveBench coding tasks, driving the 86.5% market-implied odds as traders price in sustained frontier performance through October. The model’s strong results on objective, contamination-resistant coding and agentic subsets reflect Anthropic’s focused post-training on real-world software engineering workflows, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch two days later. With LiveBench questions rotating monthly and no major competing model drops expected before end-October, the gap appears durable absent an unexpected capability jump from rivals. OpenAI’s 7.3% reflects its competitive but secondary positioning on the same benchmarks, while lower-probability names face larger capability shortfalls.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 86%
OpenAI 4.9%
SpaceXAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$21,196 Vol.
$21,196 Vol.
31. Okt. 2026
Anthropic
86%
OpenAI
11%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Mistral
<1%
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 86%
OpenAI 4.9%
SpaceXAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$21,196 Vol.
$21,196 Vol.
31. Okt. 2026
Anthropic
$9,207 Vol.
86%
OpenAI
$3,089 Vol.
11%
SpaceXAI
$1,081 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$657 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$553 Vol.
<1%
$546 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$499 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$484 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$398 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$355 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$310 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$395 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$507 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$468 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$410 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$363 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$454 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$364 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$297 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$334 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$426 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 release on September 1 has solidified its lead on LiveBench coding tasks, driving the 86.5% market-implied odds as traders price in sustained frontier performance through October. The model’s strong results on objective, contamination-resistant coding and agentic subsets reflect Anthropic’s focused post-training on real-world software engineering workflows, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch two days later. With LiveBench questions rotating monthly and no major competing model drops expected before end-October, the gap appears durable absent an unexpected capability jump from rivals. OpenAI’s 7.3% reflects its competitive but secondary positioning on the same benchmarks, while lower-probability names face larger capability shortfalls.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Markt eröffnet: Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volumen
$21,196Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 release on September 1 has solidified its lead on LiveBench coding tasks, driving the 86.5% market-implied odds as traders price in sustained frontier performance through October. The model’s strong results on objective, contamination-resistant coding and agentic subsets reflect Anthropic’s focused post-training on real-world software engineering workflows, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch two days later. With LiveBench questions rotating monthly and no major competing model drops expected before end-October, the gap appears durable absent an unexpected capability jump from rivals. OpenAI’s 7.3% reflects its competitive but secondary positioning on the same benchmarks, while lower-probability names face larger capability shortfalls.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volumen
$21,196Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 release on September 1 has solidified its lead on LiveBench coding tasks, driving the 86.5% market-implied odds as traders price in sustained frontier performance through October. The model’s strong results on objective, contamination-resistant coding and agentic subsets reflect Anthropic’s focused post-training on real-world software engineering workflows, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch two days later. With LiveBench questions rotating monthly and no major competing model drops expected before end-October, the gap appears durable absent an unexpected capability jump from rivals. OpenAI’s 7.3% reflects its competitive but secondary positioning on the same benchmarks, while lower-probability names face larger capability shortfalls.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen