Anthropic's recent release of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has driven the 88.5% market-implied odds for the company holding the best AI model by end of October, as the Mythos-class large language model tops independent benchmarks including Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and Vals AI on agentic coding, tool use, and reasoning tasks. This positions Anthropic ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Google's models, which trail on composite scores despite ongoing iterations. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic's consistent frontier leadership since July's Opus 5 launch against potential shifts from unannounced competitor updates or benchmark revisions before the October 31 resolution based on arena.ai rankings. Industry safety coordination among the leading labs adds context but has not altered the current performance gap.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 89%
Google 6.4%
OpenAI 3.3%
Meta 1.7%
$280,766 Vol.
$280,766 Vol.
31. Okt. 2026
Anthropic
89%
6%
OpenAI
3%
Meta
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 89%
Google 6.4%
OpenAI 3.3%
Meta 1.7%
$280,766 Vol.
$280,766 Vol.
31. Okt. 2026
Anthropic
$51,873 Vol.
89%
$26,212 Vol.
6%
OpenAI
$29,366 Vol.
3%
Meta
$26,553 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$20,574 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$16,772 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$18,488 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$20,197 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$21,544 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$15,474 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$11,129 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,471 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$2,066 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$7,360 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$925 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,262 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,800 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$4,885 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$949 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$540 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,327 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent release of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has driven the 88.5% market-implied odds for the company holding the best AI model by end of October, as the Mythos-class large language model tops independent benchmarks including Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and Vals AI on agentic coding, tool use, and reasoning tasks. This positions Anthropic ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Google's models, which trail on composite scores despite ongoing iterations. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic's consistent frontier leadership since July's Opus 5 launch against potential shifts from unannounced competitor updates or benchmark revisions before the October 31 resolution based on arena.ai rankings. Industry safety coordination among the leading labs adds context but has not altered the current performance gap.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markt eröffnet: Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volumen
$280,766Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent release of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has driven the 88.5% market-implied odds for the company holding the best AI model by end of October, as the Mythos-class large language model tops independent benchmarks including Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and Vals AI on agentic coding, tool use, and reasoning tasks. This positions Anthropic ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Google's models, which trail on composite scores despite ongoing iterations. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic's consistent frontier leadership since July's Opus 5 launch against potential shifts from unannounced competitor updates or benchmark revisions before the October 31 resolution based on arena.ai rankings. Industry safety coordination among the leading labs adds context but has not altered the current performance gap.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$280,766Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent release of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has driven the 88.5% market-implied odds for the company holding the best AI model by end of October, as the Mythos-class large language model tops independent benchmarks including Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and Vals AI on agentic coding, tool use, and reasoning tasks. This positions Anthropic ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Google's models, which trail on composite scores despite ongoing iterations. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic's consistent frontier leadership since July's Opus 5 launch against potential shifts from unannounced competitor updates or benchmark revisions before the October 31 resolution based on arena.ai rankings. Industry safety coordination among the leading labs adds context but has not altered the current performance gap.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen