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icon for Welches Unternehmen hat Ende Oktober das KI-Modell Nr.1? (Stilsteuerung Ein)
Technik·AI

Welches Unternehmen hat Ende Oktober das KI-Modell Nr.1? (Stilsteuerung Ein)

icon for Welches Unternehmen hat Ende Oktober das KI-Modell Nr.1? (Stilsteuerung Ein)
Technik·AI

Welches Unternehmen hat Ende Oktober das KI-Modell Nr.1? (Stilsteuerung Ein)

Okt. 1

Nov. 1

Okt. 1

Nov. 1

Anthropic 77%

OpenAI 10.2%

Meta 7.8%

Google 6.5%

Polymarket

$21,183 Vol.

Anthropic 77%

OpenAI 10.2%

Meta 7.8%

Google 6.5%

Polymarket

$21,183 Vol.

icon for Anthropic

Anthropic

$12,979 Vol.

77%

icon for OpenAI

OpenAI

$695 Vol.

10%

icon for Meta

Meta

$468 Vol.

8%

icon for Google

Google

$543 Vol.

7%

icon for Moonshot

Moonshot

$438 Vol.

1%

icon for Z.ai

Z.ai

$446 Vol.

1%

icon for Alibaba

Alibaba

$406 Vol.

1%

icon for Baidu

Baidu

$246 Vol.

1%

icon for ByteDance

ByteDance

$382 Vol.

1%

icon for MiniMax

MiniMax

$409 Vol.

1%

icon for Thinky

Thinky

$375 Vol.

1%

icon for Meituan

Meituan

$366 Vol.

1%

icon for Nvidia

Nvidia

$371 Vol.

1%

icon for Tencent

Tencent

$366 Vol.

1%

icon for Microsoft

Microsoft

$364 Vol.

1%

icon for StepFun

StepFun

$367 Vol.

<1%

icon for Amazon

Amazon

$371 Vol.

<1%

icon for SpaceXAI

SpaceXAI

$328 Vol.

<1%

icon for Xiaomi

Xiaomi

$502 Vol.

<1%

icon for DeepSeek

DeepSeek

$388 Vol.

<1%

icon for Mistral

Mistral

$372 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, 2026, currently leads composite benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 at 84.61 and tops Artificial Analysis Intelligence and coding indices through superior agentic workflows, long-context reasoning, and SWE-bench performance. This recent capability edge, paired with strong availability via API, drives the 76.5% market-implied probability that Anthropic holds the #1 model by end of October. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra (September 3) trails slightly on several verified suites and faces greater access gating, while Google Gemini 3.8 Flash, Meta's Muse Spark, and Chinese labs like Moonshot or DeepSeek sit further behind on frontier metrics. Traders appear to price limited near-term leapfrogging risk before the resolution window, though new releases or benchmark shifts could still alter positioning.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.

Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$21,183
Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, 2026, currently leads composite benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 at 84.61 and tops Artificial Analysis Intelligence and coding indices through superior agentic workflows, long-context reasoning, and SWE-bench performance. This recent capability edge, paired with strong availability via API, drives the 76.5% market-implied probability that Anthropic holds the #1 model by end of October. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra (September 3) trails slightly on several verified suites and faces greater access gating, while Google Gemini 3.8 Flash, Meta's Muse Spark, and Chinese labs like Moonshot or DeepSeek sit further behind on frontier metrics. Traders appear to price limited near-term leapfrogging risk before the resolution window, though new releases or benchmark shifts could still alter positioning.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.

Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$21,183
Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...

Verwandte

icon for Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

85%
icon for Wird Anthropic am Ende Oktober 2026 das beste Mathematik-KI-Modell haben?

Wird Anthropic am Ende Oktober 2026 das beste Mathematik-KI-Modell haben?

75%
Ja
icon for Wird Anthropic am Ende September 2026 das führende KI-Modell haben?

Wird Anthropic am Ende September 2026 das führende KI-Modell haben?

93%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Welches Unternehmen hat Ende Oktober das KI-Modell Nr.1? (Stilsteuerung Ein)" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 21 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Anthropic" mit 77%, gefolgt von „OpenAI" mit 10%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 77¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 77% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Welches Unternehmen hat Ende Oktober das KI-Modell Nr.1? (Stilsteuerung Ein)" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $21.2K generiert, seit der Markt am Aug 12, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Welches Unternehmen hat Ende Oktober das KI-Modell Nr.1? (Stilsteuerung Ein)" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 21 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Welches Unternehmen hat Ende Oktober das KI-Modell Nr.1? (Stilsteuerung Ein)" ist „Anthropic" mit 77%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 77% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „OpenAI" mit 10%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Welches Unternehmen hat Ende Oktober das KI-Modell Nr.1? (Stilsteuerung Ein)" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.