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Geopolitik·Jalisco-New-Generation-Kartell

Welche Kartellführer werden 2026 verhaftet?

Market icon
Geopolitik·Jalisco-New-Generation-Kartell

Welche Kartellführer werden 2026 verhaftet?

$3,367 Vol.

Feb 28, 2026
Polymarket

$3,367 Vol.

Polymarket

Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar

$0 Vol.

16%

Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar

$0 Vol.

19%

Ricardo Ruiz Velasco

$0 Vol.

53%

Audias Flores-Silva

$0 Vol.

30%

Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan

$3,367 Vol.

38%

Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez

$0 Vol.

23%

Juan Reyes Mejía González

$0 Vol.

55%

Juan Pablo Ledezma

$0 Vol.

55%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The arrest of longtime Sinaloa Cartel leader Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada in July 2024 by US authorities, reportedly via betrayal by associates, underscores the role of internal cartel rivalries and US DEA operations in capturing kingpins, though extradition from Mexico remains contentious. CJNG head Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes, subject to a $10 million US bounty, remains at large despite intensified Mexican military deployments. Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum, who took office in October 2024, has pledged continuity in security strategy amid escalating violence, while US-Mexico bilateral talks on fentanyl and extraditions continue. Traders should track cartel infighting, agency actions by DEA and SEDENA, potential policy shifts post-US inauguration, and violence spikes signaling leadership vacuums that could prompt 2026 arrests.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$3,367
Enddatum
Feb 28, 2026
Markt eröffnet
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The arrest of longtime Sinaloa Cartel leader Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada in July 2024 by US authorities, reportedly via betrayal by associates, underscores the role of internal cartel rivalries and US DEA operations in capturing kingpins, though extradition from Mexico remains contentious. CJNG head Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes, subject to a $10 million US bounty, remains at large despite intensified Mexican military deployments. Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum, who took office in October 2024, has pledged continuity in security strategy amid escalating violence, while US-Mexico bilateral talks on fentanyl and extraditions continue. Traders should track cartel infighting, agency actions by DEA and SEDENA, potential policy shifts post-US inauguration, and violence spikes signaling leadership vacuums that could prompt 2026 arrests.

The arrest of longtime Sinaloa Cartel leader Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada in July 2024 by US authorities, reportedly via betrayal by associates, underscores the role of internal cartel rivalries and US DEA operations in capturing kingpins, though extradition from Mexico remains contentious. CJNG head Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes, subject to a $10 million US bounty, remains at large despite intensified Mexican military deployments. Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum, who took office in October 2024, has pledged continuity in security strategy amid escalating violence, while US-Mexico bilateral talks on fentanyl and extraditions continue. Traders should track cartel infighting, agency actions by DEA and SEDENA, potential policy shifts post-US inauguration, and violence spikes signaling leadership vacuums that could prompt 2026 arrests.

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Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Welche Kartellführer werden 2026 verhaftet?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 8 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Juan Pablo Ledezma" mit 56%, gefolgt von „Juan Reyes Mejía González" mit 55%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 56¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 56% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Welche Kartellführer werden 2026 verhaftet?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Feb 24, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Welche Kartellführer werden 2026 verhaftet?" ist „Juan Pablo Ledezma" mit 56%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 56% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Juan Reyes Mejía González" mit 55%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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