Name: When will the reconciliation bill pass?
Start: 2025-05-20T18:12:20.916488Z
End: 2025-06-30T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve according to the date range (ET) the next reconciliation bill is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress 

The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority.

The bill does not need to be signed into law by the President

The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

This market will resolve according to the date range (ET) within which the next reconciliation bill is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress.

The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority.

The bill does not need to be signed into law by the President.

The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

Before July

July 1-6

July 7-13

July 14-20

July 28-Aug 3

July 21-27

Aug 4-10

Aug 11-17

Aug 18-24

Aug 25-31

Not before September

When will the reconciliation bill pass?

This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which a government funding bill is passed by Congress, defined as the date on which the second chamber (either the U.S. House of Representatives or the U.S. Senate) passes the bill.

This market will resolve to “No Bill passed by Jan 31” if no government funding bill is passed by Congress by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

A qualifying bill must actually pass both chambers of Congress (the US House and the US Senate). Passage of separate or different bills will not qualify; it must be the same piece of legislation.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 29, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the US House and Senate pass the same government funding bill between market creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," the bill must actually pass both chambers of Congress (the US House and the US Senate). Passage of separate or different bills will not qualify; it must be the same piece of legislation.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will House and Senate pass funding bill by January 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

Wurde der Clarity Act im Jahr 2026 unterzeichnet?

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether enhanced ACA premium tax credits will be extended in 2025 (https://polymarket.com/event/enhanced-aca-premium-tax-credits-extended-in-2025?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).

The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:

1. Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended in 2025?
Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced premium tax credits are set to expire at the end of 2025 if not extended by the federal government.

This market will resolve according to whether a bill extending the enhanced ACA premium tax credits beyond 2025 is signed into federal law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 

A qualifying bill may extend the enhanced ACA premium tax credits in any form, including shorter extensions, phased-down benefits, or narrowed eligibility, as long as the bill clearly continues enhanced premium tax credits that have wider eligibility and/or lower required income contributions relative to baseline ACA premium tax credits that would otherwise apply after 2025.

A bill replacing the ACA enhanced premium tax credits with an alternative form of healthcare subsidy, such as direct cash payments to a health savings account, will not qualify.

If the bill is signed into law before 2026, it will qualify to resolve this market, regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary source of resolution will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

Werden die ACA-Prämiensteuergutschriften nicht verlängert und wird die Demokratische Partei das Repräsentantenhaus 2026 gewinnen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Bill or Hillary Clinton, or both, provide live or recorded testimony before either chamber of the United States Congress (House of Representatives or Senate), or any of their official committees or subcommittees, by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Werden Bill oder Hillary Clinton bis zum 31. Januar vor dem Kongress aussagen?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bill or Hillary Clinton (or both Bill and Hillary Clinton) are held in contempt of Congress by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Bill or Hillary Clinton will be considered to be held in contempt of Congress once a full chamber vote of the House of Representatives or Senate votes to approve a resolution (or other measure) holding them in contempt of Congress. A qualifying vote within this market’s timeframe will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of any subsequent appeals or challenges it may face or whether or not the Department of Justice prosecutes the matter.

The approval of a contempt of Congress resolution by the full chamber of the House of Representatives or Senate without a vote (e.g. approval through unanimous consent) will count.

Committee votes or other procedural steps prior to a full senate or house vote on a contempt of Congress resolution will not count.

The primary resolution sources will be official information from the United States Congress; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Will Bill or Hillary Clinton be held in contempt of Congress by Feb 28?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S government funding lapse occurs on January 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A funding lapse is defined as the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by January 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a bill extending the funding of the U.S. government is passed and signed by the acting President before January 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," any funding lapse will count. If only a portion of the US government is covered by any signed bill(s) extending funding of the US government, and a portion of the US government goes unfunded, this market will still resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Stillstand der US-Regierungsfinanzierung am 31. Januar?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".

Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.

Die Republikaner setzen die 'nukleare Option' ein, um den Filibuster bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 zu brechen?

This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.

A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. 

If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

2026 Kräfteverhältnis: R Senat, D Repräsentantenhaus

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate.

This market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats.

If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.


Republikaner erringen Trifecta mit Supermehrheit im Senat bei den Zwischenwahlen?

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.

This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

Wird die Republikanische Partei nach den Zwischenwahlen 2026 zwischen 190 und 194 Sitze im Repräsentantenhaus halten?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.

A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.

Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.

This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Stimmt eine Legislative eines US-Bundesstaates bis zum 30. Juni 2026 über die Abspaltung ab?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Wird Trump bis Ende 2026 seines Amtes enthoben?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate capital gains tax on any cryptocurrency assets by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market.

If capital gains is eliminated only for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump schafft die Kapitalertragssteuer auf Krypto vor 2027 ab?

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.

This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

Wird die Republikanische Partei nach den Zwischenwahlen 2026 genau 49 Sitze im Senat halten?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Chuck Schumer remains the Minority Leader of the United States Senate without interruption from November 14, 2025 through March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Wird Schumer bis zum 31. März Minderheitenführer bleiben?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Wird die Republikanische Partei den UT-01 Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).

The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:

1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.

The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).

2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

Wird es bis zum 31. Januar keinen US-Regierungsstillstand geben und wird die Demokratische Partei das Repräsentantenhaus 2026 gewinnen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.

A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Wird Trump bis zum 30. Juni eine Zolldividende schaffen?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action which creates or orders the creation of a federal cap on credit card interest rates in the United States by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

A “cap on credit card interest rates” is defined as a legally binding maximum interest rate (e.g., an APR ceiling, stated as a percentage) that makes it unlawful for credit card issuers to charge above a specified rate of interest on consumer credit cards. Non-binding guidance, agency recommendations, actions that only cap fees, or other actions that do not cap interest rates/APR will not qualify.

A qualifying action must apply broadly to consumer credit card interest rates in the United States. State-level caps or actions that only apply to a narrow subset of borrowers or lenders will not qualify. Limited exceptions, however, will not disqualify an action from counting (e.g. a cap which is broadly applicable to consumer credit card interest rates in the U.S., but exempts a limited and specific set of credit card products/categories would still count).

Any legislation or executive action (including executive orders, proclamations, and memoranda) which creates or directly orders the implementation of a qualifying cap will count. Announcements, proposals, requests for study, or other actions that do not themselves create or order the creation of such a cap will not count. A qualifying action within the market’s time frame will count regardless of when the cap goes into effect or any legal or other challenges it may face after enactment.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Wird Trump die Kreditkartenzinssätze bis zum 31. März 2026 begrenzen?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Wird die Republikanische Partei den Sitz des Repräsentantenhauses im UT-02 gewinnen?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify.

The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.

Wird Mitch McConnell seinen Sitz im Senat vor Ablauf seiner Amtszeit niederlegen?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the State of Florida enacts a law that modifies the boundaries of federal Congressional Districts in Florida by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Committee votes, hearings, or reports, or other intermediate steps prior to enactment will have no impact on the resolution of this market. Subsequent litigation or challenges to an enacted law will also have no impact on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Florida; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Wird Florida bis zum 31. März ein Gesetz zur Neuabgrenzung der Wahlkreise erlassen?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Wird die Demokratische Partei den Sitz MT-01 im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Wird die Republikanische Partei den UT-03 Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Werden die Zwischenwahlen 2026 wie geplant stattfinden?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any sitting member of the United States Congress resigns or is removed from their congressional seat and the cause of their departure is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government during this market’s timeframe. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying resignation or removal must be caused by information included in newly released Epstein-related files. The cause of resignation or removal may be established through official statements from the departing Member of Congress or through a clear consensus of credible reporting. Resignations or removals driven by information already public before November 18, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.

An announcement of resignation or removal made before April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will qualify, even if the departure becomes effective afterward.

Only the resignation of a U.S. representative or Senator will count. The resignation or removal of a delegate to congress who does not hold full voting powers, e.g. Stacey Plaskett, will not count.

The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from the departing Member of Congress and a consensus of credible reporting.

US-Kongressmitglied bis zum 30. April wegen Epstein-Akten zurückgetreten?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bill Clinton and/or Hillary Clinton announce their intention to divorce by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by the specified date of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Bill Clinton and/or Hillary Clinton, and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Bill Clinton bis zum 30. Juni geschieden?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Wird die Demokratische Partei den IA-01 Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Wird die Demokratische Partei den IN-01 Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.

This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.

The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:

1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.

Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.

Wird Kevin Warsh als Fed-Vorsitzender bestätigt und bleiben die Zinsen im Jahr 2026 über 2,5 %?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:

1.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

2.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

When will the reconciliation bill pass?

Before July
$92,174 Umsatz
No

July 1-6
$41,803 Umsatz
Yes

July 7-13
$14,182 Umsatz
No

July 14-20
$14,569 Umsatz
No

July 21-27
$17,873 Umsatz
No

July 28-Aug 3
$13,091 Umsatz
No

Aug 4-10
$17,848 Umsatz
No

Aug 11-17
$9,868 Umsatz
No

Aug 18-24
$20,620 Umsatz
No

Aug 25-31
$15,635 Umsatz
No

Not before September
$16,212 Umsatz
No

Marktkontext

When will the reconciliation bill pass?

Regeln

When will the reconciliation bill pass?

Marktkontext

When will the reconciliation bill pass?

Über

When will the reconciliation bill pass?

Before July$92,174 UmsatzNo

July 1-6$41,803 UmsatzYes

July 7-13$14,182 UmsatzNo

July 14-20$14,569 UmsatzNo

July 21-27$17,873 UmsatzNo

July 28-Aug 3$13,091 UmsatzNo

Aug 4-10$17,848 UmsatzNo

Aug 11-17$9,868 UmsatzNo

Aug 18-24$20,620 UmsatzNo

Aug 25-31$15,635 UmsatzNo

Not before September$16,212 UmsatzNo

Marktkontext

When will the reconciliation bill pass?

Regeln

When will the reconciliation bill pass?

Marktkontext

When will the reconciliation bill pass?

Über

Before July
$92,174 Umsatz
No

July 1-6
$41,803 Umsatz
Yes

July 7-13
$14,182 Umsatz
No

July 14-20
$14,569 Umsatz
No

July 21-27
$17,873 Umsatz
No

July 28-Aug 3
$13,091 Umsatz
No

Aug 4-10
$17,848 Umsatz
No

Aug 11-17
$9,868 Umsatz
No

Aug 18-24
$20,620 Umsatz
No

Aug 25-31
$15,635 Umsatz
No

Not before September
$16,212 Umsatz
No