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When will the next recession happen in the US?

Market icon

When will the next recession happen in the US?

$106,944 Vol.

Jan 27, 2022
Polymarket

$106,944 Vol.

Polymarket
Market icon

By Q4 2021?

$1,648 Vol.

No

Market icon

By Q1 2022?

$15,605 Vol.

Yes

Market icon

By Q2 2022?

$22,176 Vol.

Yes

Market icon

By Q3 2022?

$40,480 Vol.

Yes

Market icon

By Q4 2022?

$27,035 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 in Q4 2021, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product This market will resolve as soon as the data for Q4 2021 are released, scheduled for January 27 2022, 8:30 AM ET. Please note, that the data in the earliest Gross Domestic Produce report is labelled by BEA as “Advance Estimate” and will be considered to resolve this market. The data might be revisioned during the following quarter in the next estimates however, any revisions to the data made after the release of the Advance Estimate will not be considered for this market.This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 in Q4 2021 or Q1 2022, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product This market will resolve as soon as the conditions above are satisfied, or when the data for Q1 2022 is released. Please note, that the data in the earliest Gross Domestic Produce report is labelled by BEA as “Advance Estimate” and will be considered to resolve this market. The data might be revisioned during the following quarter in next estimates however, any revisions to the data made after the release of the Advance Estimate will not be considered for this market.This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 in at least one quarter between Q4 2021 and Q2 2022 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product This market will resolve as soon as the conditions above are satisfied for any of the quarters in the range, or when the data for Q2 2022 is released. Please note, that the data in the earliest Gross Domestic Produce report is labelled by BEA as “Advance Estimate” and will be considered to resolve this market. The data might be revisioned during the following quarter in next estimates however, any revisions to the data made after the release of the Advance Estimate will not be considered for this market.This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 in at least one quarter between Q4 2021 and Q3 2022 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product This market will resolve as soon as the conditions above are satisfied for any of the quarters in the range, or when the data for Q3 2022 is released. Please note, that the data in the earliest Gross Domestic Produce report is labelled by BEA as “Advance Estimate” and will be considered to resolve this market. The data might be revisioned during the following quarter in next estimates however, any revisions to the data made after the release of the Advance Estimate will not be considered for this market.This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 in at least one quarter between Q4 2021 and Q4 2022 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product This market will resolve as soon as the conditions above are satisfied for any of the quarters in the range, or when the data for Q4 2022 is released. Please note, that the data in the earliest Gross Domestic Produce report is labelled by BEA as “Advance Estimate” and will be considered to resolve this market. The data might be revisioned during the following quarter in next estimates however, any revisions to the data made after the release of the Advance Estimate will not be considered for this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 in Q4 2021, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product This market will resolve as soon as the data for Q4 2021 are released, scheduled for January 27 2022, 8:30 AM ET. Please note, that the data in the earliest Gross Domestic Produce report is labelled by BEA as “Advance Estimate” and will be considered to resolve this market. The data might be revisioned during the following quarter in the next estimates however, any revisions to the data made after the release of the Advance Estimate will not be considered for this market.This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 in Q4 2021 or Q1 2022, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product This market will resolve as soon as the conditions above are satisfied, or when the data for Q1 2022 is released. Please note, that the data in the earliest Gross Domestic Produce report is labelled by BEA as “Advance Estimate” and will be considered to resolve this market. The data might be revisioned during the following quarter in next estimates however, any revisions to the data made after the release of the Advance Estimate will not be considered for this market.This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 in at least one quarter between Q4 2021 and Q2 2022 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product This market will resolve as soon as the conditions above are satisfied for any of the quarters in the range, or when the data for Q2 2022 is released. Please note, that the data in the earliest Gross Domestic Produce report is labelled by BEA as “Advance Estimate” and will be considered to resolve this market. The data might be revisioned during the following quarter in next estimates however, any revisions to the data made after the release of the Advance Estimate will not be considered for this market.This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 in at least one quarter between Q4 2021 and Q3 2022 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product This market will resolve as soon as the conditions above are satisfied for any of the quarters in the range, or when the data for Q3 2022 is released. Please note, that the data in the earliest Gross Domestic Produce report is labelled by BEA as “Advance Estimate” and will be considered to resolve this market. The data might be revisioned during the following quarter in next estimates however, any revisions to the data made after the release of the Advance Estimate will not be considered for this market.This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 in at least one quarter between Q4 2021 and Q4 2022 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product This market will resolve as soon as the conditions above are satisfied for any of the quarters in the range, or when the data for Q4 2022 is released. Please note, that the data in the earliest Gross Domestic Produce report is labelled by BEA as “Advance Estimate” and will be considered to resolve this market. The data might be revisioned during the following quarter in next estimates however, any revisions to the data made after the release of the Advance Estimate will not be considered for this market.

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Häufig gestellte Fragen

„When will the next recession happen in the US?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 5 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „By Q1 2022?" mit 100%, gefolgt von „By Q2 2022?" mit 100%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 100¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 100% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „When will the next recession happen in the US?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $106.9K generiert, seit der Markt am Jan 11, 2022 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „When will the next recession happen in the US?" ist „By Q1 2022?" mit 100%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 100% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „By Q2 2022?" mit 100%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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