Name: What will Tucker say during Lavrov interview?
Start: 2024-12-04T22:11:37.131373Z
End: 2025-02-28T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on predicting what Tucker Carlson will say during his interview with Sergey Lavrov.

Tucker Carlson announced he recently recorded an interview with Sergey Lavrov (see: https://x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1864092222091657502).

This market will be based solely on what Tucker Carlson says during this interview. Words spoken by other participants will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker says "China" 5 or more times during the interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "China" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the country in East Asia officially named the People's Republic of China. 

This market may only resolve to "No" if the interview has finished airing in its entirety and the Yes condition wasn't met. If the interview has not aired in its entirety by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point. If no interview is aired by this time, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source is the video of the interview.

China 5+ times

Tucker Carlson announced he recently recorded an interview with Sergey Lavrov (see: https://x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1864092222091657502).

This market will be based solely on what Tucker Carlson says during this interview. Words spoken by other participants will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker says "HIMARS" during the interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

This market may only resolve to "No" if the interview has finished airing in its entirety and the Yes condition wasn't met. If the interview has not aired in its entirety by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point. If no interview is aired by this time, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source is the video of the interview.

HIMARS

Tucker Carlson announced he recently recorded an interview with Sergey Lavrov (see: https://x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1864092222091657502).

This market will be based solely on what Tucker Carlson says during this interview. Words spoken by other participants will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker says "Ukraine" 10 or more times during the interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Ukraine" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the country in Eastern Europe. 

This market may only resolve to "No" if the interview has finished airing in its entirety and the Yes condition wasn't met. If the interview has not aired in its entirety by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point. If no interview is aired by this time, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source is the video of the interview.

Ukraine 10+ times

Tucker Carlson announced he recently recorded an interview with Sergey Lavrov (see: https://x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1864092222091657502).

This market will be based solely on what Tucker Carlson says during this interview. Words spoken by other participants will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker says "NATO" or "North Atlantic Treaty Organization" 5 or more times during the interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "NATO" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. 

This market may only resolve to "No" if the interview has finished airing in its entirety and the Yes condition wasn't met. If the interview has not aired in its entirety by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point. If no interview is aired by this time, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source is the video of the interview.

NATO 5+ times

Tucker Carlson announced he recently recorded an interview with Sergey Lavrov (see: https://x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1864092222091657502).

This market will be based solely on what Tucker Carlson says during this interview. Words spoken by other participants will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker says "Jew" or "Jewish" during the interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Jew" or "Jewish" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to Judaism faith or a follower of Judaism

This market may only resolve to "No" if the interview has finished airing in its entirety and the Yes condition wasn't met. If the interview has not aired in its entirety by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point. If no interview is aired by this time, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source is the video of the interview.

Jew/Jewish

Tucker Carlson announced he recently recorded an interview with Sergey Lavrov (see: https://x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1864092222091657502).

This market will be based solely on what Tucker Carlson says during this interview. Words spoken by other participants will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker says "Assad" or "al-Assad" during the interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Assad" or "al-Assad" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.

This market may only resolve to "No" if the interview has finished airing in its entirety and the Yes condition wasn't met. If the interview has not aired in its entirety by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point. If no interview is aired by this time, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source is the video of the interview.

Assad

Tucker Carlson announced he recently recorded an interview with Sergey Lavrov (see: https://x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1864092222091657502).

This market will be based solely on what Tucker Carlson says during this interview. Words spoken by other participants will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker says "West" 5 or more times during the interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "West" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the Western world as a concept and/or its constituent countries. 

This market may only resolve to "No" if the interview has finished airing in its entirety and the Yes condition wasn't met. If the interview has not aired in its entirety by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point. If no interview is aired by this time, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source is the video of the interview.

West 5+ times

Tucker Carlson announced he recently recorded an interview with Sergey Lavrov (see: https://x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1864092222091657502).

This market will be based solely on what Tucker Carlson says during this interview. Words spoken by other participants will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker says "Trump" 5 or more times during the interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Trump" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to Donald J. Trump and/or his family members. 

This market may only resolve to "No" if the interview has finished airing in its entirety and the Yes condition wasn't met. If the interview has not aired in its entirety by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point. If no interview is aired by this time, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source is the video of the interview.

Trump 5+ times

Tucker Carlson announced he recently recorded an interview with Sergey Lavrov (see: https://x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1864092222091657502).

This market will be based solely on what Tucker Carlson says during this interview. Words spoken by other participants will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker says "Biden" 5 or more times during the interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Biden" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to President Joe Biden and/or his family members. 

This market may only resolve to "No" if the interview has finished airing in its entirety and the Yes condition wasn't met. If the interview has not aired in its entirety by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point. If no interview is aired by this time, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source is the video of the interview.

Biden 5+ times

Tucker Carlson announced he recently recorded an interview with Sergey Lavrov (see: https://x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1864092222091657502).

This market will be based solely on what Tucker Carlson says during this interview. Words spoken by other participants will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker says "nuclear" 3 or more times during the interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "nuclear" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to energy released during nuclear fusion or fission, or technology that relates to that process. 

This market may only resolve to "No" if the interview has finished airing in its entirety and the Yes condition wasn't met. If the interview has not aired in its entirety by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point. If no interview is aired by this time, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source is the video of the interview.

Nuclear 3+ times

Tucker Carlson announced he recently recorded an interview with Sergey Lavrov (see: https://x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1864092222091657502).

This market will be based solely on what Tucker Carlson says during this interview. Words spoken by other participants will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker says "denazification" or "denazify" during the interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

This market may only resolve to "No" if the interview has finished airing in its entirety and the Yes condition wasn't met. If the interview has not aired in its entirety by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point. If no interview is aired by this time, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source is the video of the interview.

Denazification/Denazify

Tucker Carlson announced he recently recorded an interview with Sergey Lavrov (see: https://x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1864092222091657502).

This market will be based solely on what Tucker Carlson says during this interview. Words spoken by other participants will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker says "Nazi" during the interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "nazi" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to one who espouses the beliefs and policies of the NSDAP, or something that pertains to Naziism.

This market may only resolve to "No" if the interview has finished airing in its entirety and the Yes condition wasn't met. If the interview has not aired in its entirety by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point. If no interview is aired by this time, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source is the video of the interview.

Nazi

Tucker Carlson announced he recently recorded an interview with Sergey Lavrov (see: https://x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1864092222091657502).

This market will be based solely on what Tucker Carlson says during this interview. Words spoken by other participants will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker says "democracy" during the interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "democracy" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives.

This market may only resolve to "No" if the interview has finished airing in its entirety and the Yes condition wasn't met. If the interview has not aired in its entirety by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point. If no interview is aired by this time, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source is the video of the interview.

Democracy

Tucker Carlson announced he recently recorded an interview with Sergey Lavrov (see: https://x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1864092222091657502).

This market will be based solely on what Tucker Carlson says during this interview. Words spoken by other participants will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker says "clown" during the interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "clown" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a fool, or a person worthy of ridicule.

This market may only resolve to "No" if the interview has finished airing in its entirety and the Yes condition wasn't met. If the interview has not aired in its entirety by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point. If no interview is aired by this time, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source is the video of the interview.

Clown

Tucker Carlson announced he recently recorded an interview with Sergey Lavrov (see: https://x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1864092222091657502).

This market will be based solely on what Tucker Carlson says during this interview. Words spoken by other participants will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker says "WW3" or "World War 3" during the interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

This market may only resolve to "No" if the interview has finished airing in its entirety and the Yes condition wasn't met. If the interview has not aired in its entirety by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point. If no interview is aired by this time, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source is the video of the interview.

Tucker Carlson announced he recently recorded an interview with Sergey Lavrov (see: https://x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1864092222091657502).

This market will be based solely on what Tucker Carlson says during this interview. Words spoken by other participants will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker says "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "crypto" or "Bitcoin" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to decentralized cryptocurrency (e.g. "cryptocurrency-related" counts).

This market may only resolve to "No" if the interview has finished airing in its entirety and the Yes condition wasn't met. If the interview has not aired in its entirety by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point. If no interview is aired by this time, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source is the video of the interview.

Crypto/Bitcoin

Tucker Carlson announced he recently recorded an interview with Sergey Lavrov (see: https://x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1864092222091657502).

This market will be based solely on what Tucker Carlson says during this interview. Words spoken by other participants will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker says "buffer" during the interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "buffer" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a thing that prevents incompatible or antagonistic people or things from coming into contact with or harming each other.

This market may only resolve to "No" if the interview has finished airing in its entirety and the Yes condition wasn't met. If the interview has not aired in its entirety by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point. If no interview is aired by this time, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source is the video of the interview.

Buffer

Tucker Carlson announced he recently recorded an interview with Sergey Lavrov (see: https://x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1864092222091657502).

This market will be based solely on what Tucker Carlson says during this interview. Words spoken by other participants will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker says "Prigohzen" during the interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Prigozhin" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to former head of Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin.

This market may only resolve to "No" if the interview has finished airing in its entirety and the Yes condition wasn't met. If the interview has not aired in its entirety by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point. If no interview is aired by this time, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source is the video of the interview.

Prigozhin

Tucker Carlson announced he recently recorded an interview with Sergey Lavrov (see: https://x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1864092222091657502).

This market will be based solely on what Tucker Carlson says during this interview. Words spoken by other participants will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker says "Wagner" during the interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Wagner" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the Russian state-funded private military company PMC Wagner.

This market may only resolve to "No" if the interview has finished airing in its entirety and the Yes condition wasn't met. If the interview has not aired in its entirety by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point. If no interview is aired by this time, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source is the video of the interview.

Wagner

Tucker Carlson announced he recently recorded an interview with Sergey Lavrov (see: https://x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1864092222091657502).

This market will be based solely on what Tucker Carlson says during this interview. Words spoken by other participants will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker says "Kamala" during the interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Kamala" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to US Vice President Kamala Harris.

This market may only resolve to "No" if the interview has finished airing in its entirety and the Yes condition wasn't met. If the interview has not aired in its entirety by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point. If no interview is aired by this time, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source is the video of the interview.

Kamala

Tucker Carlson announced he recently recorded an interview with Sergey Lavrov (see: https://x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1864092222091657502).

This market will be based solely on what Tucker Carlson says during this interview. Words spoken by other participants will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker says "Syria" during the interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Syria" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the Middle Eastern country.

This market may only resolve to "No" if the interview has finished airing in its entirety and the Yes condition wasn't met. If the interview has not aired in its entirety by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point. If no interview is aired by this time, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source is the video of the interview.

Syria

What will Tucker say during Lavrov interview?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is interviewed by Tucker Carlson between November 17, 2025 and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interview is defined as a scheduled, recorded conversation where Donald Trump answers questions posed by Tucker Carlson. Press conferences or media briefings held by the White House with Carlson in attendance will not count.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a credible consensus of reporting that Donald Trump has recorded an interview with Tucker Carlson before February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, even if that interview is not yet released.

The resolution source for this market will be publicly available video footage of the interview; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird Tucker Carlson Trump bis zum 28. Februar interviewen?

An interview of Donald Trump by Katie Pavlich on "Katie Pavlich Tonight" is scheduled to air on January 20, 2026. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/NewsNation/status/2012890752905363662

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during this interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this interview is definitively cancelled by Donald Trump or NewsNation, or otherwise is not released by January 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the interview has not aired in its entirety by January 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point.

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution. Transcripts will not count.

Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during NewsNation interview?

An interview of Donald Trump by Joe Kernen is scheduled to air on January 21, 2026. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/CNBC/status/2012167755407999076

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during this interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this interview is definitively cancelled by Donald Trump or CNBC, or otherwise is not released by January 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the interview has not aired in its entirety by January 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point.

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution. Transcripts will not count.

Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during CNBC interview?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between January 6 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. 

Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. 

Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

US x Russland militärischer Zusammenstoß bis zum 31. Dezember 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Justin Tucker signs with an NFL team as a player before the 2025-2026 NFL season ends. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Tucker will be considered to have signed with an NFL team if his signing is recorded on the official NFL transaction wire.

The resolution source for this market will be the official NFL transaction wire (https://www.nfl.com/transactions/). 

Wird Justin Tucker dieses Jahr bei einem NFL-Team unterschreiben?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between January 2, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.

Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify.

Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.

Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Militärische Auseinandersetzung zwischen NATO und Russland bis zum 31. Dezember 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin talk by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

A talk is defined as any interaction between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.

Events that occurred prior to the start of this market will not qualify toward its resolution.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Wird Selenskyj bis zum 31. März mit Putin sprechen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is a guest on any "The Joe Rogan Experience" podcast episode between December 1, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If a consensus of credible reporting confirms Elon Musk recorded an episode with Rogan before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of when/if it is released.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Spotify and/or Youtube, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird Elon Musk vor dem 30. Juni bei Joe Rogan auftreten?

This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between September 30 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.

A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Werden Trump und Putin sich nicht treffen?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Toretske by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

Territory will be considered captured if any part of Toretske is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. 

Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Wird Russland bis zum 31. Januar Toretske einnehmen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new episode of the Up Only podcast is publicly released to the general public by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Released previews of the interview won't count - the full interview must be released by the resolution date for this market to resolve to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market will be footage of the interview and/or a consensus of credible reporting.


Wurde der Up Only Podcast bis zum 28. Februar 2026 veröffentlicht?

Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver the 2026 State of the Union address on February 24. You can read more about that here: https://mikejohnson.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=2812

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled delivery of the 2026 State of the Union address. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Biden" during the State of the Union address?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.

Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Wird Russland bis zum 30. Juni 2026 ein NATO-Land angreifen?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf

Russland x Ukraine Friedensgespräche

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Drake officially releases Iceman before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.

Iceman refers to the upcoming studio album by Drake of that title, which has been promoted through videos released with the titles “Iceman Episode (1-4)”, and the singles “What Did I Miss”, “Which One”, and “Dog House.”

Officially released means that Iceman is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.

The full Iceman studio album must be released in order to resolve this market. Further singles or Iceman video episodes will not be sufficient to resolve this market. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the Iceman project will count, regardless of potential name changes.

The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify. A consensus of credible reporting that a released album is the Iceman project may be used if Drake releases the album under a different name.

Wird Drake Iceman vor GTA VI veröffentlichen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

Wird Russland bis zum 31. März 2026 eine Nuklearwaffe testen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Karoline Leavitt says the listed term during the next White House press briefing she participates in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated content will not be considered when resolving this market.

If no such press briefing happens by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If Leavitt ceases to be White House press secretary for any length of time by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market refers to White House press briefings by Karoline Leavitt (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). Any press briefing by Karoline Leavitt will qualify. "New Media" press briefings or special briefings such as those including extra guests will be considered, so long as Leavitt is a listed participant. Impromptu press gaggles will not be considered for the resolution of this market; only events listed on the public schedule as briefings or announcements will qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be footage of the relevant briefing.

Will Leavitt say "President" 65+ times during the next White House Press Briefing?

Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" during the 2026 State of the Union address?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Tesla currently scheduled to take place on January 28, 2026 at 5:30 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will Tesla say "Robotaxi" during earnings call?

On August 15, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in person at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson near Anchorage, Alaska, for a summit focused on potential peace terms in Ukraine. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with Donald Trump on a separate occasion from the August 15, 2025 meeting by the listed date (ET).  Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Encounters that are part of, or a continuation of, the August 15 meeting will not qualify, even if they occur on a different day (e.g. August 16).

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Putin and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Wird Trump bis zum 31. März 2026 Putin treffen?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally brings criminal charges against, or announces a criminal indictment of, Don Lemon between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from U.S. governmental or court sources; however, a broad consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird Don Lemon strafrechtlich angeklagt?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg

Train Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg

Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg

Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

Wird Russland Kostjantyniwka bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 einnehmen?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

Wird Trump Steve Hilton bei der Gouverneurswahl in Kalifornien am 2. November 2026 ET unterstützen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses or suggests María Corina Machado as Venezuelan state leader or president by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump announces that he would prefer or endorses another individual, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Wird Trump María Corina Machado bei der Präsidentschaftswahl in Venezuela 2026 unterstützen?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between T-05-15 and Shakhtarskoi Slavy vulytsia located in Rodyns'ke by February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/rodynske+intersection+zoom.png

Intersection Location in Rodyns'ke: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/rodynske+intersection.png

Rodyns'ke location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/rodynske.jpeg

Location on Google maps:  https://maps.app.goo.gl/oFYUB5RUaKXaPvVT9

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Wird Russland Rodynske bis zum 28. Februar einnehmen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

J.D. Vance is set to deliver remarks in Washington on on January 23, 2026 (see: https://www.dioceseofscranton.org/vance-to-address-march-for-life-rally-in-person-trump-to-speak-via-video/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vance says the listed term during the event on January 23, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g., joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however, "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

This market is explicitly about the remarks for March for Life (https://www.dioceseofscranton.org/vance-to-address-march-for-life-rally-in-person-trump-to-speak-via-video/). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by January 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will J.D. Vance say "Trump" during the March for Life?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the sovereign territory of any NATO member state or on any official embassy or consulate of a NATO member state between December 4, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact the ground territory of a NATO member state or an official embassy/consulate of a NATO member (e.g., if a weapons depot on NATO territory is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted (i.e., do not impact) and surface-to-air missile launches will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris falls on NATO territory or causes damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes conducted directly by ground operatives, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Russischer Angriff auf ein NATO-Mitglied bis zum 31. März?

The Joe Rogan Experience podcast releases episodes on https://www.youtube.com/@joerogan.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the first released episode of the Joe Rogan Experience Podcast between January 26, 2026 and February 1, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old episodes or prerecorded clips are aired where people are speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

If no such episode of the Joe Rogan Experience Podcast is aired by February 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

JRE MMA Show episodes will not count for this market, only Joe Rogan Experience episodes.

The resolution source will be the released episode from (https://www.youtube.com/@joerogan).

Will "Joe" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week? (February 1)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between January 19, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and January 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Too Big To Rig" this week? (January 25)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court, in Trump v. Slaughter, rules to overturn Humphrey's Executor v. United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The Supreme Court will be considered to overturn Humphrey's Executor v. United States if they issue a decision in Trump v. Slaughter overruling or substantially limiting Humphrey's Executor v. United States (1935), including ruling that the President may remove FTC commissioners at will.

If the Supreme court ruling in Trump v. Slaughter affirms that for-cause removal protections for FTC commissioners remain constitutional or if the case is dismissed, settled, or otherwise disposed of without a merits decision within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to “No”. If no Supreme Court ruling on the merits of Trump v. Slaughter is issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ali Khamenei visits Russia by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "visit" is defined as Ali Khamenei physically entering the terrestrial territory of Russia in a voluntary capacity. Whether or not Ali Khamenei enters Russian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

Entering Russia requires physically entering sovereign Russian territory, including all Russian federal subjects and territories. Areas under Russian control but not under Russian sovereignty (e.g., Crimea) do not count. Russian airspace, Russian embassies/consulates abroad, and international zones do not constitute Russian sovereign territory.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Wird Khamenei bis zum 31. März Russland besuchen?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:

- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf

Blaue Tsunami im Jahr 2026?

Will Trump say "Minnesota" during the State of the Union address?

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.

If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Wird Einiges Russland (ER) die meisten Sitze bei der nächsten russischen Parlamentswahl gewinnen?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration or the U.S. government announces that it is sending, has sent, or will send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying statement within the specified timeframe will suffice regardless of when the missiles are sent.

For the purposes of this market, official policy announcements from the Trump administration or the U.S. government will qualify. Informal statements, leaks, or speculative remarks will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, the U.S. government, or the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if no direct official statement is available.

What will Tucker say during Lavrov interview?

Ukraine 10+ times
$3,984 Umsatz
No

Assad
$10,375 Umsatz
Yes

China 5+ times
$2,785 Umsatz
No

NATO 5+ times
$5,178 Umsatz
No

West 5+ times
$3,492 Umsatz
No

Syria
$9,480 Umsatz
Yes

Trump 5+ times
$5,177 Umsatz
No

Biden 5+ times
$2,691 Umsatz
No

Nuclear 3+ times
$2,749 Umsatz
Yes

Denazification/Denazify
$6,637 Umsatz
No

Nazi
$4,498 Umsatz
No

Democracy
$5,192 Umsatz
No

Clown
$5,538 Umsatz
No

WW3
$7,460 Umsatz
No

HIMARS
$9,067 Umsatz
No

Jew/Jewish
$2,312 Umsatz
No

Crypto/Bitcoin
$21,119 Umsatz
No

Buffer
$5,880 Umsatz
No

Prigozhin
$5,319 Umsatz
No

Wagner
$3,996 Umsatz
No

Kamala
$4,134 Umsatz
No

Marktkontext

What will Tucker say during Lavrov interview?

Regeln

What will Tucker say during Lavrov interview?

Marktkontext

What will Tucker say during Lavrov interview?

Über

What will Tucker say during Lavrov interview?

Ukraine 10+ times$3,984 UmsatzNo

Assad$10,375 UmsatzYes

China 5+ times$2,785 UmsatzNo

NATO 5+ times$5,178 UmsatzNo

West 5+ times$3,492 UmsatzNo

Syria$9,480 UmsatzYes

Trump 5+ times$5,177 UmsatzNo

Biden 5+ times$2,691 UmsatzNo

Nuclear 3+ times$2,749 UmsatzYes

Denazification/Denazify$6,637 UmsatzNo

Nazi$4,498 UmsatzNo

Democracy$5,192 UmsatzNo

Clown$5,538 UmsatzNo

WW3$7,460 UmsatzNo

HIMARS$9,067 UmsatzNo

Jew/Jewish$2,312 UmsatzNo

Crypto/Bitcoin$21,119 UmsatzNo

Buffer$5,880 UmsatzNo

Prigozhin$5,319 UmsatzNo

Wagner$3,996 UmsatzNo

Kamala$4,134 UmsatzNo

Marktkontext

What will Tucker say during Lavrov interview?

Regeln

What will Tucker say during Lavrov interview?

Marktkontext

What will Tucker say during Lavrov interview?

Über

Ukraine 10+ times
$3,984 Umsatz
No

Assad
$10,375 Umsatz
Yes

China 5+ times
$2,785 Umsatz
No

NATO 5+ times
$5,178 Umsatz
No

West 5+ times
$3,492 Umsatz
No

Syria
$9,480 Umsatz
Yes

Trump 5+ times
$5,177 Umsatz
No

Biden 5+ times
$2,691 Umsatz
No

Nuclear 3+ times
$2,749 Umsatz
Yes

Denazification/Denazify
$6,637 Umsatz
No

Nazi
$4,498 Umsatz
No

Democracy
$5,192 Umsatz
No

Clown
$5,538 Umsatz
No

WW3
$7,460 Umsatz
No

HIMARS
$9,067 Umsatz
No

Jew/Jewish
$2,312 Umsatz
No

Crypto/Bitcoin
$21,119 Umsatz
No

Buffer
$5,880 Umsatz
No

Prigozhin
$5,319 Umsatz
No

Wagner
$3,996 Umsatz
No

Kamala
$4,134 Umsatz
No