Bond traders and prediction markets have priced in a near-certain 25-basis-point federal funds rate hike at the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting, with implied probabilities exceeding 90 percent. This reflects the hawkish pivot under Chair Kevin Warsh, including his Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing that inflation remains a policy choice, alongside hotter-than-expected CPI readings, surging energy prices from Middle East tensions, and resilient labor market data. Recent economic projections show a growing number of policymakers favoring higher rates through year-end to counter persistent inflation pressures and AI-driven demand. While the consensus appears robust, tail risks such as an abrupt de-escalation in energy markets or unexpectedly soft incoming data could still prompt a hold, though such outcomes appear remote given current futures pricing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertErhöhung
95% Chance
$14,910 Vol.
$14,910 Vol.
31. Dez. 2028
Erhöhung
95% Chance
$14,910 Vol.
$14,910 Vol.
31. Dez. 2028
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmBond traders and prediction markets have priced in a near-certain 25-basis-point federal funds rate hike at the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting, with implied probabilities exceeding 90 percent. This reflects the hawkish pivot under Chair Kevin Warsh, including his Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing that inflation remains a policy choice, alongside hotter-than-expected CPI readings, surging energy prices from Middle East tensions, and resilient labor market data. Recent economic projections show a growing number of policymakers favoring higher rates through year-end to counter persistent inflation pressures and AI-driven demand. While the consensus appears robust, tail risks such as an abrupt de-escalation in energy markets or unexpectedly soft incoming data could still prompt a hold, though such outcomes appear remote given current futures pricing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Markt eröffnet: Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
Volumen
$14,910Enddatum
31. Dez. 2028Markt eröffnet
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmBond traders and prediction markets have priced in a near-certain 25-basis-point federal funds rate hike at the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting, with implied probabilities exceeding 90 percent. This reflects the hawkish pivot under Chair Kevin Warsh, including his Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing that inflation remains a policy choice, alongside hotter-than-expected CPI readings, surging energy prices from Middle East tensions, and resilient labor market data. Recent economic projections show a growing number of policymakers favoring higher rates through year-end to counter persistent inflation pressures and AI-driven demand. While the consensus appears robust, tail risks such as an abrupt de-escalation in energy markets or unexpectedly soft incoming data could still prompt a hold, though such outcomes appear remote given current futures pricing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$14,910Enddatum
31. Dez. 2028Markt eröffnet
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Bond traders and prediction markets have priced in a near-certain 25-basis-point federal funds rate hike at the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting, with implied probabilities exceeding 90 percent. This reflects the hawkish pivot under Chair Kevin Warsh, including his Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing that inflation remains a policy choice, alongside hotter-than-expected CPI readings, surging energy prices from Middle East tensions, and resilient labor market data. Recent economic projections show a growing number of policymakers favoring higher rates through year-end to counter persistent inflation pressures and AI-driven demand. While the consensus appears robust, tail risks such as an abrupt de-escalation in energy markets or unexpectedly soft incoming data could still prompt a hold, though such outcomes appear remote given current futures pricing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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