Nolo reached Category 4 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with National Hurricane Center analyses and satellite estimates placing peak sustained winds near 115–130 kt amid warm 28–29°C sea-surface temperatures and initially low vertical wind shear. An eyewall replacement cycle produced temporary intensity fluctuations, yet the storm maintained major-hurricane status before weakening after crossing the International Date Line. Market-implied odds reflect this observed peak and consistent model consensus around Category 4 thresholds. A realistic challenge would require revised post-storm reanalysis showing either sustained winds below 113 kt or an unexpected late surge above 137 kt driven by unusually favorable outflow or reduced mid-level dry-air entrainment.