Rising opposition momentum, led by Péter Magyar's Tisza party, drives the 65% implied probability for Viktor Orbán exiting as Hungary's prime minister by December 31, 2026, reflecting trader consensus on Fidesz vulnerabilities ahead of spring 2026 parliamentary elections. Recent polls show Tisza surging to challenge Fidesz's long-held dominance, fueled by widespread protests against government policies like the sovereignty protection office and economic discontent amid inflation and frozen EU funds. Magyar, a former insider turned critic, has drawn massive crowds and capitalized on corruption scandals, eroding Orbán's approval ratings from historic highs. While Fidesz retains advantages, traders weigh base rates of incumbency against these catalysts and upcoming vote.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertViktor Orbán bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 aus?
Viktor Orbán bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 aus?
Ja
$53,305 Vol.
$53,305 Vol.
Ja
$53,305 Vol.
$53,305 Vol.
An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 5, 2026, 5:56 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Rising opposition momentum, led by Péter Magyar's Tisza party, drives the 65% implied probability for Viktor Orbán exiting as Hungary's prime minister by December 31, 2026, reflecting trader consensus on Fidesz vulnerabilities ahead of spring 2026 parliamentary elections. Recent polls show Tisza surging to challenge Fidesz's long-held dominance, fueled by widespread protests against government policies like the sovereignty protection office and economic discontent amid inflation and frozen EU funds. Magyar, a former insider turned critic, has drawn massive crowds and capitalized on corruption scandals, eroding Orbán's approval ratings from historic highs. While Fidesz retains advantages, traders weigh base rates of incumbency against these catalysts and upcoming vote.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen