Trader consensus favors Vice President Delcy Rodríguez at 63.5% implied probability to serve as Venezuela's head of state by end-2026, reflecting constitutional succession rules that position her as interim leader if President Nicolás Maduro (13.9%) departs amid longstanding health rumors, economic collapse, and U.S. sanctions pressuring the regime. Opposition leader María Corina Machado trails at 12%, hampered by post-July 2024 election repression, where Maduro was declared winner despite international doubts over fraud claims and Edmundo González's (0.9%) subsequent asylum in Spain last month. No pivotal developments in the past 48 hours, but trader odds underscore regime continuity under chavismo while pricing in Maduro's uncertain term through 2031, with 2025 regional votes as a potential catalyst.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertVenezuelas Regierungschef Ende 2026?
Venezuelas Regierungschef Ende 2026?
Delcy Rodríguez 64%
Nicolás Maduro 13.9%
María Corina Machado 12%
Edmundo González <1%
$77,475,531 Vol.
$77,475,531 Vol.
Delcy Rodríguez
64%
Nicolás Maduro
14%
María Corina Machado
12%
Edmundo González
1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
1%
Donald Trump
1%
Vladimir Padrino López
1%
Jorge Rodríguez
1%
Kein Staatschef
1%
Marco Rubio
1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Delcy Rodríguez 64%
Nicolás Maduro 13.9%
María Corina Machado 12%
Edmundo González <1%
$77,475,531 Vol.
$77,475,531 Vol.
Delcy Rodríguez
64%
Nicolás Maduro
14%
María Corina Machado
12%
Edmundo González
1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
1%
Donald Trump
1%
Vladimir Padrino López
1%
Jorge Rodríguez
1%
Kein Staatschef
1%
Marco Rubio
1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Vice President Delcy Rodríguez at 63.5% implied probability to serve as Venezuela's head of state by end-2026, reflecting constitutional succession rules that position her as interim leader if President Nicolás Maduro (13.9%) departs amid longstanding health rumors, economic collapse, and U.S. sanctions pressuring the regime. Opposition leader María Corina Machado trails at 12%, hampered by post-July 2024 election repression, where Maduro was declared winner despite international doubts over fraud claims and Edmundo González's (0.9%) subsequent asylum in Spain last month. No pivotal developments in the past 48 hours, but trader odds underscore regime continuity under chavismo while pricing in Maduro's uncertain term through 2031, with 2025 regional votes as a potential catalyst.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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