Robust nowcasts for third-quarter U.S. real GDP growth, including the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model holding near 3.6% and a median of private trackers around 3.2%, underpin the 66.5% market-implied probability for annualized expansion of 3.0% or higher. These readings reflect upward revisions to consumer spending and a surge in business fixed investment, particularly equipment and AI-related capital outlays, which more than offset drags from net exports and modest inventory adjustments. Second-quarter growth was revised higher to 2.2%, while September PMI data signaled the strongest business activity in over five years. The official advance estimate is scheduled for release on October 29, with limited scope for material downside surprises given the data flow through mid-October.