Recent polling aggregates from sources including the New York Times and Nate Silver’s bulletin have held steady near 38 percent approval through early to mid-August 2026, reflecting a gradual decline over the prior year amid economic pressures and foreign policy developments. Multiple surveys released in the first half of August, such as Economist/YouGov and Reuters/Ipsos, clustered in the low-to-mid 30s, while higher-readings like Rasmussen reinforced the narrow band around 38 percent. Traders assign overwhelming probability to the 38.0–38.4 range because these consistent aggregator readings on or near August 14 showed limited daily movement. A major late-breaking poll revision, unexpected economic data release, or sudden diplomatic event within the resolution window could still shift the final published figure.