Defending champion Rory McIlroy's bogey-free 5-under 67 to co-lead after round 1 at Augusta National, followed by birdies early in round 2 to reach 7-under through eight holes, drives his 56% implied probability as trader consensus second-round leader, reflecting his strong ball-striking and putting on the fast greens. Nicolas Echavarria's 42.5% stems from recent momentum including a Par 3 Contest win last year, despite a tough opening 79, as traders weigh potential bounce-back in favorable early tee time. Dustin Johnson's steady 1-over 73 round 1 and two-time major winner pedigree support 40%, while U.S. Amateur champion Mason Howell's 37.5% highlights debut upside amid field positioning. Patrick Reed's climb to 5-under through 10 in round 2 bolsters his 27.5%, with others at 25% like Tommy Fleetwood (-4 through 10) showing competitive leaderboard proximity amid ongoing play.
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