Traders view the race for second place in Text Arena Math by end of October as highly uncertain, with market-implied odds clustered near 50% for multiple labs and lower for established names like Google at 33.5% and OpenAI at 30%. Anthropic's Claude variants currently dominate the leaderboard with top Elo ratings above 1520, driven by superior chain-of-thought reasoning on complex math problems, leaving a tight contest among Google Gemini, OpenAI GPT-5 series, Z.ai GLM-5 models, Alibaba Qwen3, and Moonshot Kimi entries. Recent model iterations and fine-tunes have produced rapid shifts in human preference votes, underscoring how small capability edges in large language model training can alter lab rankings quickly. Key catalysts ahead include any new releases or benchmark surges before the October deadline that could consolidate or fragment the second-tier group.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertGoogle 33%
OpenAI 30%
Anthropic 22%
Alibaba 3.8%
$55,851 Vol.
$55,851 Vol.
31. Okt. 2026
33%
OpenAI
30%
Anthropic
22%
Alibaba
4%
Baidu
2%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
1%
DeepSeek
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Meta
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Meituan
1%
ByteDance
1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Google 33%
OpenAI 30%
Anthropic 22%
Alibaba 3.8%
$55,851 Vol.
$55,851 Vol.
31. Okt. 2026
$33,305 Vol.
33%
OpenAI
$5,342 Vol.
30%
Anthropic
$5,467 Vol.
22%
Alibaba
$1,401 Vol.
4%
Baidu
$658 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$651 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$749 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$666 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$648 Vol.
1%
Meta
$641 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$608 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$959 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$676 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$662 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$817 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$702 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$671 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$521 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$370 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$336 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders view the race for second place in Text Arena Math by end of October as highly uncertain, with market-implied odds clustered near 50% for multiple labs and lower for established names like Google at 33.5% and OpenAI at 30%. Anthropic's Claude variants currently dominate the leaderboard with top Elo ratings above 1520, driven by superior chain-of-thought reasoning on complex math problems, leaving a tight contest among Google Gemini, OpenAI GPT-5 series, Z.ai GLM-5 models, Alibaba Qwen3, and Moonshot Kimi entries. Recent model iterations and fine-tunes have produced rapid shifts in human preference votes, underscoring how small capability edges in large language model training can alter lab rankings quickly. Key catalysts ahead include any new releases or benchmark surges before the October deadline that could consolidate or fragment the second-tier group.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markt eröffnet: Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
Volumen
$55,851Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders view the race for second place in Text Arena Math by end of October as highly uncertain, with market-implied odds clustered near 50% for multiple labs and lower for established names like Google at 33.5% and OpenAI at 30%. Anthropic's Claude variants currently dominate the leaderboard with top Elo ratings above 1520, driven by superior chain-of-thought reasoning on complex math problems, leaving a tight contest among Google Gemini, OpenAI GPT-5 series, Z.ai GLM-5 models, Alibaba Qwen3, and Moonshot Kimi entries. Recent model iterations and fine-tunes have produced rapid shifts in human preference votes, underscoring how small capability edges in large language model training can alter lab rankings quickly. Key catalysts ahead include any new releases or benchmark surges before the October deadline that could consolidate or fragment the second-tier group.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$55,851Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Traders view the race for second place in Text Arena Math by end of October as highly uncertain, with market-implied odds clustered near 50% for multiple labs and lower for established names like Google at 33.5% and OpenAI at 30%. Anthropic's Claude variants currently dominate the leaderboard with top Elo ratings above 1520, driven by superior chain-of-thought reasoning on complex math problems, leaving a tight contest among Google Gemini, OpenAI GPT-5 series, Z.ai GLM-5 models, Alibaba Qwen3, and Moonshot Kimi entries. Recent model iterations and fine-tunes have produced rapid shifts in human preference votes, underscoring how small capability edges in large language model training can alter lab rankings quickly. Key catalysts ahead include any new releases or benchmark surges before the October deadline that could consolidate or fragment the second-tier group.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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