OpenAI holds an 82.5% market-implied probability as the second-best AI agent lab by end of October, reflecting trader consensus around its leading large language model releases, agent orchestration tools, and developer ecosystem momentum that outpace rivals. Anthropic sits at 13.5% on the strength of Claude's demonstrated reasoning benchmarks and safety-focused updates, while Google trails at 2.1% amid ongoing Gemini agent integrations. Lower odds for labs such as Moonshot, SpaceXAI, and others signal limited verified capability gains or public benchmarks in the past month. Key near-term catalysts include scheduled model updates and industry conferences that could alter these probabilities if new agent features or competitive benchmarks emerge.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertOpenAI 83%
Anthropic 14%
Moonshot 2.5%
SpaceXAI 2.1%
$35,714 Vol.
$35,714 Vol.
31. Okt. 2026
OpenAI
83%
Anthropic
14%
Moonshot
3%
SpaceXAI
2%
2%
Meituan
1%
Amazon
1%
MiniMax
1%
Baidu
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Meta
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
OpenAI 83%
Anthropic 14%
Moonshot 2.5%
SpaceXAI 2.1%
$35,714 Vol.
$35,714 Vol.
31. Okt. 2026
OpenAI
$14,042 Vol.
83%
Anthropic
$4,613 Vol.
14%
Moonshot
$7,725 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$705 Vol.
2%
$1,527 Vol.
2%
Meituan
$518 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$599 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$626 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$591 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$555 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$548 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$516 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$638 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$473 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$553 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$558 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$526 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$400 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI holds an 82.5% market-implied probability as the second-best AI agent lab by end of October, reflecting trader consensus around its leading large language model releases, agent orchestration tools, and developer ecosystem momentum that outpace rivals. Anthropic sits at 13.5% on the strength of Claude's demonstrated reasoning benchmarks and safety-focused updates, while Google trails at 2.1% amid ongoing Gemini agent integrations. Lower odds for labs such as Moonshot, SpaceXAI, and others signal limited verified capability gains or public benchmarks in the past month. Key near-term catalysts include scheduled model updates and industry conferences that could alter these probabilities if new agent features or competitive benchmarks emerge.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markt eröffnet: Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ET
Volumen
$35,714Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI holds an 82.5% market-implied probability as the second-best AI agent lab by end of October, reflecting trader consensus around its leading large language model releases, agent orchestration tools, and developer ecosystem momentum that outpace rivals. Anthropic sits at 13.5% on the strength of Claude's demonstrated reasoning benchmarks and safety-focused updates, while Google trails at 2.1% amid ongoing Gemini agent integrations. Lower odds for labs such as Moonshot, SpaceXAI, and others signal limited verified capability gains or public benchmarks in the past month. Key near-term catalysts include scheduled model updates and industry conferences that could alter these probabilities if new agent features or competitive benchmarks emerge.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$35,714Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI holds an 82.5% market-implied probability as the second-best AI agent lab by end of October, reflecting trader consensus around its leading large language model releases, agent orchestration tools, and developer ecosystem momentum that outpace rivals. Anthropic sits at 13.5% on the strength of Claude's demonstrated reasoning benchmarks and safety-focused updates, while Google trails at 2.1% amid ongoing Gemini agent integrations. Lower odds for labs such as Moonshot, SpaceXAI, and others signal limited verified capability gains or public benchmarks in the past month. Key near-term catalysts include scheduled model updates and industry conferences that could alter these probabilities if new agent features or competitive benchmarks emerge.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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