Mark Smith’s position as a sitting South Carolina state representative from the district, combined with his fundraising advantage and early straw-poll leads, has anchored trader consensus around his nomination in the June 9 Republican primary for the open SC-01 seat. The race opened after incumbent Nancy Mace announced her gubernatorial bid, drawing a crowded field that includes retired Air Force colonel Alex Pelbath and several local officeholders. A late-May debate on Hilton Head sharpened contrasts over legislative records and redistricting votes, while early voting began days before the primary. These factors have kept Smith well ahead in implied probability while leaving limited room for challengers to close the gap in the final days.