Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors 5-6 inches of precipitation in Seattle for March (41.5% implied probability), followed by 6-7 inches (26.4%), driven by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center outlook signaling above-normal rainfall across the Pacific Northwest amid a developing La Niña pattern, which historically amplifies winter-spring wetness through enhanced storm tracks. Seattle's March climatological average hovers around 3 inches at Sea-Tac Airport, but recent atmospheric rivers in February dumped over 6 inches regionally, priming models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles to project totals 50-100% above normal via persistent low-pressure systems. Early March observations already exceed 1.5 inches, with NWS 8-14 day forecasts reinforcing wet signals absent drought indicators.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertNiederschlag in Seattle im März?
Niederschlag in Seattle im März?
5-6" 42.0%
6-7" 27.1%
4-5" 9.3%
>8" 8.9%
$103,169 Vol.
$103,169 Vol.
<3"
1%
3-4"
1%
4-5"
9%
5-6"
42%
6-7"
27%
7-8"
6%
>8"
9%
5-6" 42.0%
6-7" 27.1%
4-5" 9.3%
>8" 8.9%
$103,169 Vol.
$103,169 Vol.
<3"
1%
3-4"
1%
4-5"
9%
5-6"
42%
6-7"
27%
7-8"
6%
>8"
9%
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for March 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of March 2026.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 26, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors 5-6 inches of precipitation in Seattle for March (41.5% implied probability), followed by 6-7 inches (26.4%), driven by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center outlook signaling above-normal rainfall across the Pacific Northwest amid a developing La Niña pattern, which historically amplifies winter-spring wetness through enhanced storm tracks. Seattle's March climatological average hovers around 3 inches at Sea-Tac Airport, but recent atmospheric rivers in February dumped over 6 inches regionally, priming models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles to project totals 50-100% above normal via persistent low-pressure systems. Early March observations already exceed 1.5 inches, with NWS 8-14 day forecasts reinforcing wet signals absent drought indicators.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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