Name: Niederschlag in Seattle im Januar?
Start: 2026-01-14T23:09:14.800548Z
End: 2026-01-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between January 1 and January 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for January 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of January 2026.

The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

4-5"

7-8"

5-6"

6-7"

3-4"

Niederschlag in Seattle im Januar?

This market will resolve according to the total snowfall in Washington D.C. for January 2026 according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figures for January 2026 under "New Snow (IN)" when the "Daily data for a month" for "Washington Area" is selected at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=lwx link once that figure is finalized for the specified timeframe. 

If no data is available by February 28, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

Will there be less than 5 inches of snow in D.C. in January?

This market will resolve according to the total snowfall in Washington D.C. for the 3-day weekend of January 24 through January 26 (inclusive) according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figures for January 24, January 25, and January 26 under "New Snow (IN)" when the "Daily data for a month" for "Washington Area" is selected at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=lwx link once that figure is finalized for the specified days. 

If no data is available by February 28, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

Will there be 7-9 inches of snow in D.C. this weekend?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed city records a daily snowfall of at least 0.1 inches for any day between January 24 and January 26, 2026 (inclusive), as recorded by the National Weather Service (NWS). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If a daily snowfall of at least 0.1 inches is recorded by the National Weather Service for the listed city, this market will resolve immediately to “Yes”. If no such snowfall has been recorded, this market may not resolve until the NWS Daily Climate Report for the listed city for the relevant dates has been published.

The relevant National Weather Service locations for this market will be Central Park NY (New York City), Dallas/Fort Worth, TX (Dallas), Miami, FL (Miami), Seattle-Tacoma, WA (Seattle), Washington-National (Washington D.C.), Phoenix, AZ (Phoenix), Philadelphia, PA (Philadelphia), Atlanta, GA (Atlanta), Boston (Logan Airport), MA (Boston), and Pittsburgh, PA (Pittsburgh).

The resolution source for this market will be the National Weather Service, specifically the figure for  "SNOWFALL (IN)" when "Daily Climate Report (CLI)"  is selected under "Observed Weather" after navigating to the relevant city & location from https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate.

Will it Snow in New York City this weekend (January 24 - 26)?

This market will resolve according to the total snowfall in Central Park, New York City in January 2026 according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for January 2026 under "New Snow (IN)" when the "Daily data for a month" for "NY-Central Park Area" is selected at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized all the days of January. 

If no data is available by February 28, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC in January?

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.

Wird die minimale Ausdehnung des arktischen Meereises in diesem Sommer zwischen 4,6 Mio. und 4,8 Mio. Quadratkilometern liegen?

This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen. 

Wird die maximale arktische Meereisausdehnung in diesem Winter zwischen 14,2 und 14,4 Millionen Quadratkilometern liegen?

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

Wird es weltweit bis zum 30. Juni 8 oder mehr Erdbeben der Stärke 7,0 oder höher geben?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. 

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Ein Erdbeben der Stärke 10,0 oder mehr vor 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. 

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Erdbeben der Stärke 9,0 oder höher vor 2027?

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and January 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

Wird SpaceX im Januar 12 oder mehr Starts haben?

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Wird 2026 das viert-heißeste Jahr der Aufzeichnungen sein?

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on February 1, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on February 1, 2026. If no data for February 1 is released by February 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/3)


Niederschlag in Seattle im Januar?

<3"
$714 Umsatz
40%

3-4"
$254 Umsatz
38%

4-5"
$6,115 Umsatz
34%

5-6"
$378 Umsatz
14%

6-7"
$1,086 Umsatz
2%

7-8"
$737 Umsatz
11%

>8"
$1,014 Umsatz
4%

Marktkontext

Niederschlag in Seattle im Januar?

Regeln

Niederschlag in Seattle im Januar?

Marktkontext

Niederschlag in Seattle im Januar?

Über

Niederschlag in Seattle im Januar?

<3"$714 Umsatz40%Kaufen Ja47¢Kaufen Nein67¢

3-4"$254 Umsatz38%Kaufen Ja51¢Kaufen Nein75¢

4-5"$6,115 Umsatz34%Kaufen Ja48¢Kaufen Nein81¢

5-6"$378 Umsatz14%Kaufen Ja22¢Kaufen Nein94¢

6-7"$1,086 Umsatz2%Kaufen Ja2.8¢Kaufen Nein99.0¢

7-8"$737 Umsatz11%Kaufen Ja21.7¢Kaufen Nein99.3¢

>8"$1,014 Umsatz4%Kaufen Ja6.1¢Kaufen Nein98.9¢

Marktkontext

Niederschlag in Seattle im Januar?

Regeln

Niederschlag in Seattle im Januar?

Marktkontext

Niederschlag in Seattle im Januar?

Über

<3"
$714 Umsatz
40%

3-4"
$254 Umsatz
38%

4-5"
$6,115 Umsatz
34%

5-6"
$378 Umsatz
14%

6-7"
$1,086 Umsatz
2%

7-8"
$737 Umsatz
11%

>8"
$1,014 Umsatz
4%