Incumbent Republican Jim Jordan holds a commanding position in Ohio’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election against Democrat Joshua Kolasinski. The district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+21 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump’s double-digit margin there in 2024, combined with Jordan’s long tenure since 2007 and unopposed primary, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Recent mid-decade redistricting further entrenched the seat’s partisan tilt without introducing competitive dynamics. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the absence of polling showing meaningful Democratic inroads. While the implied probability leaves limited room for an upset, developments such as a major scandal, acute national partisan swing, or late-breaking candidate-specific events could still shift the outcome before Election Day.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertOH-04 Wahlsieger
OH-04 Wahlsieger
$21,104 Vol.
$21,104 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
95%
Demokratische Partei
5%
$21,104 Vol.
$21,104 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
$9,211 Vol.
95%
Demokratische Partei
$11,892 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jim Jordan holds a commanding position in Ohio’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election against Democrat Joshua Kolasinski. The district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+21 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump’s double-digit margin there in 2024, combined with Jordan’s long tenure since 2007 and unopposed primary, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Recent mid-decade redistricting further entrenched the seat’s partisan tilt without introducing competitive dynamics. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the absence of polling showing meaningful Democratic inroads. While the implied probability leaves limited room for an upset, developments such as a major scandal, acute national partisan swing, or late-breaking candidate-specific events could still shift the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$21,104Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jim Jordan holds a commanding position in Ohio’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election against Democrat Joshua Kolasinski. The district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+21 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump’s double-digit margin there in 2024, combined with Jordan’s long tenure since 2007 and unopposed primary, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Recent mid-decade redistricting further entrenched the seat’s partisan tilt without introducing competitive dynamics. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the absence of polling showing meaningful Democratic inroads. While the implied probability leaves limited room for an upset, developments such as a major scandal, acute national partisan swing, or late-breaking candidate-specific events could still shift the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$21,104Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jim Jordan holds a commanding position in Ohio’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election against Democrat Joshua Kolasinski. The district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+21 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump’s double-digit margin there in 2024, combined with Jordan’s long tenure since 2007 and unopposed primary, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Recent mid-decade redistricting further entrenched the seat’s partisan tilt without introducing competitive dynamics. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the absence of polling showing meaningful Democratic inroads. While the implied probability leaves limited room for an upset, developments such as a major scandal, acute national partisan swing, or late-breaking candidate-specific events could still shift the outcome before Election Day.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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