Name: NYSE marktweiter Schutzschalter vor 2027?
Start: 2025-11-07T21:24:55.150606Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

NYSE marktweiter Schutzschalter vor 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or not the actual filing occurs.

The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, including a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or any other individual or team that officially represents the company.

A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird Workhorse vor 2027 Insolvenz anmelden?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Wird Ubisoft vor 2027 übernommen?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) increases by at least the listed percentage on any single trading day between January 14 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a given trading day will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on that day to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the previous trading day, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The previous day’s closing price will be subtracted from the current day’s closing price, and then that difference will be divided by the previous day’s closing price. If the daily percentage change is negative, it will be considered a loss of that percentage in absolute terms.

Daily percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a daily percentage gain of 1.995% would be considered 2.00%, and a daily percentage gain of 1.993% would be considered 1.99%)

If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).

Wird der S&P 500 Index an einem Tag im 1. Quartal mindestens 2 % zulegen?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. 

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Ein Erdbeben der Stärke 10,0 oder mehr vor 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. 

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Erdbeben der Stärke 9,0 oder höher vor 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Jerome Powell vor 2027 im Gefängnis?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Werden die Zwischenwahlen 2026 wie geplant stattfinden?

This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31). 

The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.

Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)

If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.

If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).

Wird die prozentuale Veränderung im S&P 500 im 1. Quartal 2026 weniger als 0 % betragen?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:

1.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

2.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

US-Rezession bis Ende 2026?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:

- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin
- MicroStrategy announces holding 750k+ BTC
- MicroStrategy announces bankruptcy
- Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR) added to S&P 500

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/MicroStrategy.pdf

Nichts passiert jemals: MicroStrategy

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Tesla currently scheduled to take place on January 28, 2026 at 5:30 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will Tesla say "Robotaxi" during earnings call?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between this market’s creation
and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair
- Jerome Powell federally charged
- Jerome Powell arrested

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEHJeromePowellEdition.pdf

Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Consensys’ market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Consensys’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

Consensys-Börsengang schließt mit einer Marktkapitalisierung von über 1 Mrd. $?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

EU-Schuldenherabstufung vor 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:

- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.

If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open  to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird die Deutsche Bank bis zum 30. Juni 2026 scheitern?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Bitcoin hits an all-time high
- Ethereum hits an all-time high
- Solana hits an all-time high
- US national Bitcoin reserve

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_Crypto.pdf

Nichts passiert jemals: Krypto-Edition

This market will resolve to “Yes” if definitive evidence confirming the the incident on August 10, 2019, involving Jeffrey Epstein involved foul play is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Statements from the U.S. government indicating that there was foul play will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from any US government agency, law enforcement agencies, and courts, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird Fremdverschulden im Fall Jeffrey Epstein bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 bestätigt?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Jerome Powell bis zum 30. Juni bundesweit angeklagt?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual  will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird Liz Cheney vor 2027 eine Präsidentschaftskandidatur ankündigen?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed-Zinserhöhung im Jahr 2026?

Will Coingecko be acquired in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Wird Trump bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 zurücktreten?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

EZB-Zinssenkung im Jahr 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

EZB-Zinserhöhung im Jahr 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.

Neue besorgniserregende COVID-Variante vor 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between this market’s creation and market close on the final day of trading prior to or on the listed date, any 1-minute candle for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) shows a final "High" price equal to or above 50,000. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.

Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.

All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/.

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