Trader consensus gives Democrats a 56.5% implied probability to win the NY-19 House seat over Republicans at 39.0%, driven by recent polling averages showing challenger Josh Riley ahead of incumbent Marcus Molinaro by 3-4 points in Siena and internal surveys from the past two weeks. This battleground district in upstate New York, rated a toss-up by Cook Political Report, features strong Democratic early voting turnout and Riley's fundraising edge amid intense ad spending on issues like abortion rights and the economy. With Election Day on November 5, suburban voter mobilization and national House control math keep the race competitive despite the modest Democratic lead in trader sentiment.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertNY-19 Wahlsieger
NY-19 Wahlsieger
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Demokratische Partei
74%
Republikanische Partei
25%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Demokratische Partei
$224 Vol.
74%
Republikanische Partei
$0 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives Democrats a 56.5% implied probability to win the NY-19 House seat over Republicans at 39.0%, driven by recent polling averages showing challenger Josh Riley ahead of incumbent Marcus Molinaro by 3-4 points in Siena and internal surveys from the past two weeks. This battleground district in upstate New York, rated a toss-up by Cook Political Report, features strong Democratic early voting turnout and Riley's fundraising edge amid intense ad spending on issues like abortion rights and the economy. With Election Day on November 5, suburban voter mobilization and national House control math keep the race competitive despite the modest Democratic lead in trader sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Volumen
$224Enddatum
Nov 4, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives Democrats a 56.5% implied probability to win the NY-19 House seat over Republicans at 39.0%, driven by recent polling averages showing challenger Josh Riley ahead of incumbent Marcus Molinaro by 3-4 points in Siena and internal surveys from the past two weeks. This battleground district in upstate New York, rated a toss-up by Cook Political Report, features strong Democratic early voting turnout and Riley's fundraising edge amid intense ad spending on issues like abortion rights and the economy. With Election Day on November 5, suburban voter mobilization and national House control math keep the race competitive despite the modest Democratic lead in trader sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$224Enddatum
Nov 4, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus gives Democrats a 56.5% implied probability to win the NY-19 House seat over Republicans at 39.0%, driven by recent polling averages showing challenger Josh Riley ahead of incumbent Marcus Molinaro by 3-4 points in Siena and internal surveys from the past two weeks. This battleground district in upstate New York, rated a toss-up by Cook Political Report, features strong Democratic early voting turnout and Riley's fundraising edge amid intense ad spending on issues like abortion rights and the economy. With Election Day on November 5, suburban voter mobilization and national House control math keep the race competitive despite the modest Democratic lead in trader sentiment.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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