Democratic incumbent Josh Riley holds a structural edge in New York’s 19th congressional district, a D+1 seat on the Cook Partisan Voting Index where he defeated the prior Republican representative by two points in 2024. With primaries scheduled for June 23 and the general election on November 3, traders assign the Democratic Party a 61 percent implied probability of retaining the seat, reflecting Riley’s incumbency advantage and the district’s modest partisan tilt. Republican candidates Peter Oberacker and Alexander Portelli remain in their primary contest, but the party’s lower 20.5 percent odds align with historical patterns for challengers in similarly balanced districts absent major shifts in national conditions or candidate-specific developments.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNY-19 Wahlsieger
NY-19 Wahlsieger
NEU
NEU
4. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
23%
Demokratische Partei
63%
NEU
NEU
4. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
$50 Vol.
23%
Demokratische Partei
$225 Vol.
63%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Josh Riley holds a structural edge in New York’s 19th congressional district, a D+1 seat on the Cook Partisan Voting Index where he defeated the prior Republican representative by two points in 2024. With primaries scheduled for June 23 and the general election on November 3, traders assign the Democratic Party a 61 percent implied probability of retaining the seat, reflecting Riley’s incumbency advantage and the district’s modest partisan tilt. Republican candidates Peter Oberacker and Alexander Portelli remain in their primary contest, but the party’s lower 20.5 percent odds align with historical patterns for challengers in similarly balanced districts absent major shifts in national conditions or candidate-specific developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Volumen
$275Enddatum
4. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Josh Riley holds a structural edge in New York’s 19th congressional district, a D+1 seat on the Cook Partisan Voting Index where he defeated the prior Republican representative by two points in 2024. With primaries scheduled for June 23 and the general election on November 3, traders assign the Democratic Party a 61 percent implied probability of retaining the seat, reflecting Riley’s incumbency advantage and the district’s modest partisan tilt. Republican candidates Peter Oberacker and Alexander Portelli remain in their primary contest, but the party’s lower 20.5 percent odds align with historical patterns for challengers in similarly balanced districts absent major shifts in national conditions or candidate-specific developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$275Enddatum
4. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Josh Riley holds a structural edge in New York’s 19th congressional district, a D+1 seat on the Cook Partisan Voting Index where he defeated the prior Republican representative by two points in 2024. With primaries scheduled for June 23 and the general election on November 3, traders assign the Democratic Party a 61 percent implied probability of retaining the seat, reflecting Riley’s incumbency advantage and the district’s modest partisan tilt. Republican candidates Peter Oberacker and Alexander Portelli remain in their primary contest, but the party’s lower 20.5 percent odds align with historical patterns for challengers in similarly balanced districts absent major shifts in national conditions or candidate-specific developments.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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