Incumbent Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen leads trader consensus at 71% implied probability for retaining New York's 4th Congressional District seat in the November 2026 midterm election, reflecting her narrow 2024 victory flipping the D+2 district from Republican Anthony D'Esposito by 51%-49%. Recent developments bolstering her position include strong early fundraising—reporting millions alongside Rep. Tom Suozzi—and securing over $3.2 million in bipartisan community funding for Nassau County projects in January. D'Esposito's March 4 announcement to resign his inspector general role and launch a third bid has solidified the rematch, but multiple GOP primary challengers ahead of the April 2 filing deadline and June 23 primaries fragment Republican efforts. Cook Political Report rates it a Toss Up, underscoring competitiveness amid midterm dynamics favoring challengers to the president's party.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertNY-04 Wahlsieger
NY-04 Wahlsieger
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Demokratische Partei
71%
Republikanische Partei
26%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Demokratische Partei
$0 Vol.
71%
Republikanische Partei
$0 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen leads trader consensus at 71% implied probability for retaining New York's 4th Congressional District seat in the November 2026 midterm election, reflecting her narrow 2024 victory flipping the D+2 district from Republican Anthony D'Esposito by 51%-49%. Recent developments bolstering her position include strong early fundraising—reporting millions alongside Rep. Tom Suozzi—and securing over $3.2 million in bipartisan community funding for Nassau County projects in January. D'Esposito's March 4 announcement to resign his inspector general role and launch a third bid has solidified the rematch, but multiple GOP primary challengers ahead of the April 2 filing deadline and June 23 primaries fragment Republican efforts. Cook Political Report rates it a Toss Up, underscoring competitiveness amid midterm dynamics favoring challengers to the president's party.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Nov 4, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen leads trader consensus at 71% implied probability for retaining New York's 4th Congressional District seat in the November 2026 midterm election, reflecting her narrow 2024 victory flipping the D+2 district from Republican Anthony D'Esposito by 51%-49%. Recent developments bolstering her position include strong early fundraising—reporting millions alongside Rep. Tom Suozzi—and securing over $3.2 million in bipartisan community funding for Nassau County projects in January. D'Esposito's March 4 announcement to resign his inspector general role and launch a third bid has solidified the rematch, but multiple GOP primary challengers ahead of the April 2 filing deadline and June 23 primaries fragment Republican efforts. Cook Political Report rates it a Toss Up, underscoring competitiveness amid midterm dynamics favoring challengers to the president's party.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Nov 4, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen leads trader consensus at 71% implied probability for retaining New York's 4th Congressional District seat in the November 2026 midterm election, reflecting her narrow 2024 victory flipping the D+2 district from Republican Anthony D'Esposito by 51%-49%. Recent developments bolstering her position include strong early fundraising—reporting millions alongside Rep. Tom Suozzi—and securing over $3.2 million in bipartisan community funding for Nassau County projects in January. D'Esposito's March 4 announcement to resign his inspector general role and launch a third bid has solidified the rematch, but multiple GOP primary challengers ahead of the April 2 filing deadline and June 23 primaries fragment Republican efforts. Cook Political Report rates it a Toss Up, underscoring competitiveness amid midterm dynamics favoring challengers to the president's party.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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