With the MLB collective bargaining agreement expiring December 1, trader consensus tilts slightly toward "No" at 53% implied probability, reflecting stalled negotiations amid key disputes over luxury tax thresholds, minimum salaries, service time manipulation, and an international draft. Recent developments include MLB's November counterproposal on competitive balance measures, which the MLBPA deemed insufficient, keeping talks tense but active without a lockout. The market's razor-thin balance stems from Commissioner Manfred's public optimism for a pre-deadline deal—echoing past eleventh-hour agreements—versus historical precedents like the 99-day 2022 work stoppage. A breakthrough concession on revenue sharing could surge "Yes," while impasse signals might solidify "No."
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertJa
NEW
NEW
Dec 1, 2026
Ja
NEW
NEW
Dec 1, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MLB and MLBPA sign a a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
A new CBA will be considered ‘signed’ only when the final written agreement has been formally signed by authorized representatives of both the MLB and the MLB Players Association. Tentative agreements, ratifications, or agreements pending signature do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MLB and MLBPA sign a a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
A new CBA will be considered ‘signed’ only when the final written agreement has been formally signed by authorized representatives of both the MLB and the MLB Players Association. Tentative agreements, ratifications, or agreements pending signature do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MLB and MLBPA sign a a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
A new CBA will be considered ‘signed’ only when the final written agreement has been formally signed by authorized representatives of both the MLB and the MLB Players Association. Tentative agreements, ratifications, or agreements pending signature do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A new CBA will be considered ‘signed’ only when the final written agreement has been formally signed by authorized representatives of both the MLB and the MLB Players Association. Tentative agreements, ratifications, or agreements pending signature do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 20, 2026, 12:06 PM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Dec 1, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 20, 2026, 12:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MLB and MLBPA sign a a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
A new CBA will be considered ‘signed’ only when the final written agreement has been formally signed by authorized representatives of both the MLB and the MLB Players Association. Tentative agreements, ratifications, or agreements pending signature do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MLB and MLBPA sign a a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
A new CBA will be considered ‘signed’ only when the final written agreement has been formally signed by authorized representatives of both the MLB and the MLB Players Association. Tentative agreements, ratifications, or agreements pending signature do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MLB and MLBPA sign a a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
A new CBA will be considered ‘signed’ only when the final written agreement has been formally signed by authorized representatives of both the MLB and the MLB Players Association. Tentative agreements, ratifications, or agreements pending signature do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A new CBA will be considered ‘signed’ only when the final written agreement has been formally signed by authorized representatives of both the MLB and the MLB Players Association. Tentative agreements, ratifications, or agreements pending signature do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Dec 1, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 20, 2026, 12:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...With the MLB collective bargaining agreement expiring December 1, trader consensus tilts slightly toward "No" at 53% implied probability, reflecting stalled negotiations amid key disputes over luxury tax thresholds, minimum salaries, service time manipulation, and an international draft. Recent developments include MLB's November counterproposal on competitive balance measures, which the MLBPA deemed insufficient, keeping talks tense but active without a lockout. The market's razor-thin balance stems from Commissioner Manfred's public optimism for a pre-deadline deal—echoing past eleventh-hour agreements—versus historical precedents like the 99-day 2022 work stoppage. A breakthrough concession on revenue sharing could surge "Yes," while impasse signals might solidify "No."
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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