Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a closely contested year-end Nasdaq 100 (NDX) above $33,000, with >$36,000 and $33,000-$36,000 bins at 43.7% and 43.0% implied probabilities, respectively, amid tight competition from mid-range outcomes like $25,000-$26,500 (41.0%). This reflects recent NDX plunge to a March 27 close of 23,132—its largest weekly loss since April—triggered by Iran war fears spiking oil toward $100 and driving risk-off flows. Differentiating factors pit bullish Q1 2026 tech earnings growth forecasts (+23.7% per Zacks) and AI momentum against steady Fed funds at 3.50%-3.75%, 10-year Treasury yields near 4.4%, and geopolitical risks; key swings hinge on mega-cap reports and May FOMC signals.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$23.500-$25.000 40%
30.500–33.000 USD 40%
$33.000-$36.000 40%
$25.000–$26.500 40%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<$23.500
35%
$23.500-$25.000
40%
$25.000–$26.500
40%
$26.500-$28.500
40%
$28.500–$30.500
40%
30.500–33.000 USD
40%
$33.000-$36.000
40%
>36.000 $
43%
$23.500-$25.000 40%
30.500–33.000 USD 40%
$33.000-$36.000 40%
$25.000–$26.500 40%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<$23.500
$0 Vol.
35%
$23.500-$25.000
$0 Vol.
40%
$25.000–$26.500
$0 Vol.
40%
$26.500-$28.500
$0 Vol.
40%
$28.500–$30.500
$0 Vol.
40%
30.500–33.000 USD
$0 Vol.
40%
$33.000-$36.000
$0 Vol.
40%
>36.000 $
$0 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a closely contested year-end Nasdaq 100 (NDX) above $33,000, with >$36,000 and $33,000-$36,000 bins at 43.7% and 43.0% implied probabilities, respectively, amid tight competition from mid-range outcomes like $25,000-$26,500 (41.0%). This reflects recent NDX plunge to a March 27 close of 23,132—its largest weekly loss since April—triggered by Iran war fears spiking oil toward $100 and driving risk-off flows. Differentiating factors pit bullish Q1 2026 tech earnings growth forecasts (+23.7% per Zacks) and AI momentum against steady Fed funds at 3.50%-3.75%, 10-year Treasury yields near 4.4%, and geopolitical risks; key swings hinge on mega-cap reports and May FOMC signals.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Markt eröffnet: Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a closely contested year-end Nasdaq 100 (NDX) above $33,000, with >$36,000 and $33,000-$36,000 bins at 43.7% and 43.0% implied probabilities, respectively, amid tight competition from mid-range outcomes like $25,000-$26,500 (41.0%). This reflects recent NDX plunge to a March 27 close of 23,132—its largest weekly loss since April—triggered by Iran war fears spiking oil toward $100 and driving risk-off flows. Differentiating factors pit bullish Q1 2026 tech earnings growth forecasts (+23.7% per Zacks) and AI momentum against steady Fed funds at 3.50%-3.75%, 10-year Treasury yields near 4.4%, and geopolitical risks; key swings hinge on mega-cap reports and May FOMC signals.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a closely contested year-end Nasdaq 100 (NDX) above $33,000, with >$36,000 and $33,000-$36,000 bins at 43.7% and 43.0% implied probabilities, respectively, amid tight competition from mid-range outcomes like $25,000-$26,500 (41.0%). This reflects recent NDX plunge to a March 27 close of 23,132—its largest weekly loss since April—triggered by Iran war fears spiking oil toward $100 and driving risk-off flows. Differentiating factors pit bullish Q1 2026 tech earnings growth forecasts (+23.7% per Zacks) and AI momentum against steady Fed funds at 3.50%-3.75%, 10-year Treasury yields near 4.4%, and geopolitical risks; key swings hinge on mega-cap reports and May FOMC signals.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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