Missouri voters face a November 3 veto referendum on House Bill 1, the 2025 congressional map enacted during a special session at President Trump’s urging to strengthen Republican margins, including by dividing Kansas City across three districts. The Missouri Supreme Court unanimously cleared the measure for the ballot in early September after opponents gathered over 300,000 signatures, suspending HB 1 until voters decide. Trader consensus favoring rejection at 75% reflects Missouri’s record of blocking legislative redistricting plans via referendum, the mid-decade timing outside the standard cycle, and sustained opposition from groups focused on preserving existing district lines for the 2026 cycle. No major new developments have shifted positioning in recent weeks.