Recent upward revisions to Mexico’s 2026 full-year GDP consensus—to 1.4% from 1.3%—reflect a stronger-than-expected Q2 rebound of 1.4% quarter-over-quarter and solid July IGAE readings showing 0.1% month-over-month and 1.9% year-over-year growth, with gains in industrial production and exports. These developments have narrowed the implied probability gap between the 2.0-2.5% and 2.5-3.0% year-over-year bins for Q3, each near 29%. Mixed signals in early Q3 data, including flat consumption and declining formal employment, continue to weigh against faster expansion, while supportive factors such as real wage gains and U.S. demand for AI-linked manufacturing provide a modest upward bias. Traders are monitoring the late-October INEGI release for resolution.