**Strong opposition from both major party organizations and many Democratic lawmakers has kept the "no" side favored at 62.5% implied probability for Question 3.** The measure would replace Massachusetts’s separate Democratic and Republican primaries with a single nonpartisan top-two primary for state and federal offices starting in 2028, allowing all candidates on one ballot with the top two advancing regardless of party. Critics, including the state Democratic and Republican committees plus a coalition of legislators, argue the change would favor self-funded or well-financed candidates, reduce party accountability, and risk general-election matchups between two Democrats in the state’s heavily blue electorate. While supporters including former governors Deval Patrick and Charlie Baker highlight broader voter participation and moderation incentives, organized party resistance and the measure’s structural implications in a dominant-party state have shaped trader consensus ahead of the November 3 vote.