Recent polling in the Makerfield by-election consistently places Restore Britain’s candidate Rebecca Shepherd in single digits, with shares ranging from 2% to 8% across surveys conducted between late May and early June 2026. These figures reflect the party’s status as a newly formed right-wing grouping led by Rupert Lowe, competing in its first Westminster contest and drawing support primarily from voters also considering Reform UK. The resulting split of the anti-Labour vote has kept Restore Britain’s numbers well short of the 10% mark, even as the by-election itself—triggered by the sitting MP’s resignation and scheduled for 18 June—has drawn national attention to the constituency. Betting markets have likewise priced the outcome accordingly, aligning with the observed polling trends rather than any late surge in support.