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Larger Margin of Victory: Mamdani vs Prop 50?

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Larger Margin of Victory: Mamdani vs Prop 50?

Mamdani

>99% chance
Polymarket

$653,108 Vol.

Mamdani

>99% chance
Polymarket

$653,108 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Mamdani" if the Democratic candidate’s margin of victory in the 2025 New York City Mayor election is greater than the margin of victory for the Democratic-backed "Yes" position in the 2025 California referendum on Proposition 50.

This market will resolve to "Proposition 50" if the margin of victory in the California referendum is greater than in the New York City Mayor election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the difference in percentage points between the Democratic and Republican vote shares in the mayoral election and between the “Yes” and “No” vote shares in the referendum.

If the Democratic candidate and the “Yes” position fail to win, this market will resolve to the contest in which they lost by the smaller margin.

If the margin of victory is identical, or if the results of either election are not confirmed by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to the official election authority responsible for each election (the New York City Board of Elections and the California Secretary of State).
Volumen
$653,108
Enddatum
Nov 4, 2025
Markt eröffnet
Oct 8, 2025, 3:30 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Mamdani" if the Democratic candidate’s margin of victory in the 2025 New York City Mayor election is greater than the margin of victory for the Democratic-backed "Yes" position in the 2025 California referendum on Proposition 50. This market will resolve to "Proposition 50" if the margin of victory in the California referendum is greater than in the New York City Mayor election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the difference in percentage points between the Democratic and Republican vote shares in the mayoral election and between the “Yes” and “No” vote shares in the referendum. If the Democratic candidate and the “Yes” position fail to win, this market will resolve to the contest in which they lost by the smaller margin. If the margin of victory is identical, or if the results of either election are not confirmed by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to the official election authority responsible for each election (the New York City Board of Elections and the California Secretary of State).

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Mamdani

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: Mamdani

This market will resolve to "Mamdani" if the Democratic candidate’s margin of victory in the 2025 New York City Mayor election is greater than the margin of victory for the Democratic-backed "Yes" position in the 2025 California referendum on Proposition 50.

This market will resolve to "Proposition 50" if the margin of victory in the California referendum is greater than in the New York City Mayor election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the difference in percentage points between the Democratic and Republican vote shares in the mayoral election and between the “Yes” and “No” vote shares in the referendum.

If the Democratic candidate and the “Yes” position fail to win, this market will resolve to the contest in which they lost by the smaller margin.

If the margin of victory is identical, or if the results of either election are not confirmed by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to the official election authority responsible for each election (the New York City Board of Elections and the California Secretary of State).
Volumen
$653,108
Enddatum
Nov 4, 2025
Markt eröffnet
Oct 8, 2025, 3:30 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Mamdani" if the Democratic candidate’s margin of victory in the 2025 New York City Mayor election is greater than the margin of victory for the Democratic-backed "Yes" position in the 2025 California referendum on Proposition 50. This market will resolve to "Proposition 50" if the margin of victory in the California referendum is greater than in the New York City Mayor election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the difference in percentage points between the Democratic and Republican vote shares in the mayoral election and between the “Yes” and “No” vote shares in the referendum. If the Democratic candidate and the “Yes” position fail to win, this market will resolve to the contest in which they lost by the smaller margin. If the margin of victory is identical, or if the results of either election are not confirmed by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to the official election authority responsible for each election (the New York City Board of Elections and the California Secretary of State).

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Mamdani

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: Mamdani

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Larger Margin of Victory: Mamdani vs Prop 50?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Larger Margin of Victory: Mamdani vs Prop 50?" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Larger Margin of Victory: Mamdani vs Prop 50?" has generated $653.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 8, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Larger Margin of Victory: Mamdani vs Prop 50?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Larger Margin of Victory: Mamdani vs Prop 50?" is "Larger Margin of Victory: Mamdani vs Prop 50?" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Larger Margin of Victory: Mamdani vs Prop 50?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.