Recent polling averages place United Torah Judaism at 7–8 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, with most surveys clustering in that narrow band. A surplus-vote agreement signed with Shas on October 11 supports efficient allocation of remainder votes and reinforces expectations that both haredi parties will clear the threshold comfortably. Party statements emphasize conditioning any coalition participation on prior passage of draft-exemption legislation, a stance that has not altered seat projections but underscores UTJ’s independent positioning outside the Netanyahu bloc. Voter turnout targets near 320,000 ballots and stable support among Ashkenazi haredi communities continue to anchor the 7–8 seat range in the latest multi-poll aggregates.