**Recent polling averages place Shas at roughly 7–8 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, with most surveys showing the Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party in a narrow band between 7 and 10 mandates.** This range aligns with the market’s close contest between the 6–7 and 8–9 seat brackets. Key drivers include the Haredi parties’ surplus-vote agreement with United Torah Judaism, which could add one seat, and ongoing disputes over conscription legislation that have led Shas to signal it may initially remain outside any coalition. Voter turnout among Shas’s base and last-minute shifts in the broader right-religious bloc remain the main variables that could separate the lower or higher outcome in the final days.