Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remains firmly in control as Iran's Supreme Leader, with no verified health crises or internal power shifts reported in the past 30 days to signal an imminent leadership change. Recent escalations, including Iran's October 1 missile strikes on Israel following Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's assassination and Israel's retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26, prompted Khamenei to issue public directives emphasizing strategic patience and deterrence without altering domestic succession dynamics. At age 85, trader consensus weighs his longevity against longstanding rumors, while the Assembly of Experts holds authority over any transition. Upcoming diplomatic tensions or undisclosed health events could shift probabilities, but official stability dominates current positioning.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$4,774,686 Vol.
May 31, 2026
31. März
7%
30. April
23%
31. Mai
34%
30. Juni
41%
31. Dezember
51%
$4,774,686 Vol.
31. März
$2,701,109 Vol.
7%
30. April
$1,256,775 Vol.
23%
31. Mai
$18,551 Vol.
34%
30. Juni
$8,640 Vol.
41%
31. Dezember
$790,510 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remains firmly in control as Iran's Supreme Leader, with no verified health crises or internal power shifts reported in the past 30 days to signal an imminent leadership change. Recent escalations, including Iran's October 1 missile strikes on Israel following Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's assassination and Israel's retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26, prompted Khamenei to issue public directives emphasizing strategic patience and deterrence without altering domestic succession dynamics. At age 85, trader consensus weighs his longevity against longstanding rumors, while the Assembly of Experts holds authority over any transition. Upcoming diplomatic tensions or undisclosed health events could shift probabilities, but official stability dominates current positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ET
Volumen
$4,774,686Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remains firmly in control as Iran's Supreme Leader, with no verified health crises or internal power shifts reported in the past 30 days to signal an imminent leadership change. Recent escalations, including Iran's October 1 missile strikes on Israel following Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's assassination and Israel's retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26, prompted Khamenei to issue public directives emphasizing strategic patience and deterrence without altering domestic succession dynamics. At age 85, trader consensus weighs his longevity against longstanding rumors, while the Assembly of Experts holds authority over any transition. Upcoming diplomatic tensions or undisclosed health events could shift probabilities, but official stability dominates current positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$4,774,686Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remains firmly in control as Iran's Supreme Leader, with no verified health crises or internal power shifts reported in the past 30 days to signal an imminent leadership change. Recent escalations, including Iran's October 1 missile strikes on Israel following Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's assassination and Israel's retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26, prompted Khamenei to issue public directives emphasizing strategic patience and deterrence without altering domestic succession dynamics. At age 85, trader consensus weighs his longevity against longstanding rumors, while the Assembly of Experts holds authority over any transition. Upcoming diplomatic tensions or undisclosed health events could shift probabilities, but official stability dominates current positioning.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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