Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, aged 85 and in power since 1989, remains actively engaged in Iran's governance amid escalating regional tensions, with no confirmed health issues or succession moves in the past 30 days. His recent public statements praising Iran's October 1 missile strikes on Israel and meetings with allies like Hamas leaders underscore continuity, while unverified rumors of illness circulate without primary evidence. The Assembly of Experts holds authority over appointing a successor, a secretive process with potential candidates including Khamenei's son Mojtaba, but institutional stability and regime resilience favor status quo odds. Traders watch for de-escalation signals, sanctions shifts post-US election, or sudden medical announcements that could trigger rapid change.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$4,783,931 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
31. März
6%
30. April
24%
31. Mai
32%
30. Juni
40%
31. Dezember
51%
$4,783,931 Vol.
31. März
$2,705,992 Vol.
6%
30. April
$1,259,220 Vol.
24%
31. Mai
$18,551 Vol.
32%
30. Juni
$8,769 Vol.
40%
31. Dezember
$791,398 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, aged 85 and in power since 1989, remains actively engaged in Iran's governance amid escalating regional tensions, with no confirmed health issues or succession moves in the past 30 days. His recent public statements praising Iran's October 1 missile strikes on Israel and meetings with allies like Hamas leaders underscore continuity, while unverified rumors of illness circulate without primary evidence. The Assembly of Experts holds authority over appointing a successor, a secretive process with potential candidates including Khamenei's son Mojtaba, but institutional stability and regime resilience favor status quo odds. Traders watch for de-escalation signals, sanctions shifts post-US election, or sudden medical announcements that could trigger rapid change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
Volumen
$4,783,931Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, aged 85 and in power since 1989, remains actively engaged in Iran's governance amid escalating regional tensions, with no confirmed health issues or succession moves in the past 30 days. His recent public statements praising Iran's October 1 missile strikes on Israel and meetings with allies like Hamas leaders underscore continuity, while unverified rumors of illness circulate without primary evidence. The Assembly of Experts holds authority over appointing a successor, a secretive process with potential candidates including Khamenei's son Mojtaba, but institutional stability and regime resilience favor status quo odds. Traders watch for de-escalation signals, sanctions shifts post-US election, or sudden medical announcements that could trigger rapid change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$4,783,931Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, aged 85 and in power since 1989, remains actively engaged in Iran's governance amid escalating regional tensions, with no confirmed health issues or succession moves in the past 30 days. His recent public statements praising Iran's October 1 missile strikes on Israel and meetings with allies like Hamas leaders underscore continuity, while unverified rumors of illness circulate without primary evidence. The Assembly of Experts holds authority over appointing a successor, a secretive process with potential candidates including Khamenei's son Mojtaba, but institutional stability and regime resilience favor status quo odds. Traders watch for de-escalation signals, sanctions shifts post-US election, or sudden medical announcements that could trigger rapid change.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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