Incumbent Republican Jim Baird's stronghold in Indiana's 4th Congressional District, rated R+20 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, underpins trader consensus implying 91% odds for the Republican Party ahead of the November 5 election. Baird's past landslide margins—71% in 2022 and 67% in 2020—reflect consistent conservative dominance in this rural eastern Indiana seat spanning 15 counties with minimal Democratic infrastructure. No polls or major developments, such as endorsements or scandals, have emerged in the past 30 days to alter dynamics, as Democratic nominee Roger Day trails significantly in fundraising and visibility. Upset scenarios remain slim but could involve a national Democratic turnout surge, Baird health issues, or late legal challenges, though historical base rates for safe seats favor continuity.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertIN-04 Wahlsieger
IN-04 Wahlsieger
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republikanische Partei
91%
Demokratische Partei
9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republikanische Partei
$0 Vol.
91%
Demokratische Partei
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jim Baird's stronghold in Indiana's 4th Congressional District, rated R+20 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, underpins trader consensus implying 91% odds for the Republican Party ahead of the November 5 election. Baird's past landslide margins—71% in 2022 and 67% in 2020—reflect consistent conservative dominance in this rural eastern Indiana seat spanning 15 counties with minimal Democratic infrastructure. No polls or major developments, such as endorsements or scandals, have emerged in the past 30 days to alter dynamics, as Democratic nominee Roger Day trails significantly in fundraising and visibility. Upset scenarios remain slim but could involve a national Democratic turnout surge, Baird health issues, or late legal challenges, though historical base rates for safe seats favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jim Baird's stronghold in Indiana's 4th Congressional District, rated R+20 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, underpins trader consensus implying 91% odds for the Republican Party ahead of the November 5 election. Baird's past landslide margins—71% in 2022 and 67% in 2020—reflect consistent conservative dominance in this rural eastern Indiana seat spanning 15 counties with minimal Democratic infrastructure. No polls or major developments, such as endorsements or scandals, have emerged in the past 30 days to alter dynamics, as Democratic nominee Roger Day trails significantly in fundraising and visibility. Upset scenarios remain slim but could involve a national Democratic turnout surge, Baird health issues, or late legal challenges, though historical base rates for safe seats favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jim Baird's stronghold in Indiana's 4th Congressional District, rated R+20 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, underpins trader consensus implying 91% odds for the Republican Party ahead of the November 5 election. Baird's past landslide margins—71% in 2022 and 67% in 2020—reflect consistent conservative dominance in this rural eastern Indiana seat spanning 15 counties with minimal Democratic infrastructure. No polls or major developments, such as endorsements or scandals, have emerged in the past 30 days to alter dynamics, as Democratic nominee Roger Day trails significantly in fundraising and visibility. Upset scenarios remain slim but could involve a national Democratic turnout surge, Baird health issues, or late legal challenges, though historical base rates for safe seats favor continuity.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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