Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% to retain the IL-09 House seat in the November 3 general election, driven by Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss's decisive victory in the March 17 Democratic primary following longtime incumbent Jan Schakowsky's retirement. This north Chicago suburban district has consistently delivered strong Democratic margins, with recent presidential results exceeding 70% for the party, underscoring its safe status amid limited Republican infrastructure. Biss's win consolidated party support in a competitive primary field, while the GOP nominee faces steep structural barriers including fundraising gaps and historical base rates for challengers in D+20-plus districts. Upsets could stem from late scandals, national midterm waves, or turnout anomalies, though these remain low-probability scenarios.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertIL-09 Wahlsieger
IL-09 Wahlsieger
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Demokratische Partei
94%
Republikanische Partei
6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Demokratische Partei
$8,385 Vol.
94%
Republikanische Partei
$0 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% to retain the IL-09 House seat in the November 3 general election, driven by Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss's decisive victory in the March 17 Democratic primary following longtime incumbent Jan Schakowsky's retirement. This north Chicago suburban district has consistently delivered strong Democratic margins, with recent presidential results exceeding 70% for the party, underscoring its safe status amid limited Republican infrastructure. Biss's win consolidated party support in a competitive primary field, while the GOP nominee faces steep structural barriers including fundraising gaps and historical base rates for challengers in D+20-plus districts. Upsets could stem from late scandals, national midterm waves, or turnout anomalies, though these remain low-probability scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$8,385Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% to retain the IL-09 House seat in the November 3 general election, driven by Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss's decisive victory in the March 17 Democratic primary following longtime incumbent Jan Schakowsky's retirement. This north Chicago suburban district has consistently delivered strong Democratic margins, with recent presidential results exceeding 70% for the party, underscoring its safe status amid limited Republican infrastructure. Biss's win consolidated party support in a competitive primary field, while the GOP nominee faces steep structural barriers including fundraising gaps and historical base rates for challengers in D+20-plus districts. Upsets could stem from late scandals, national midterm waves, or turnout anomalies, though these remain low-probability scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$8,385Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% to retain the IL-09 House seat in the November 3 general election, driven by Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss's decisive victory in the March 17 Democratic primary following longtime incumbent Jan Schakowsky's retirement. This north Chicago suburban district has consistently delivered strong Democratic margins, with recent presidential results exceeding 70% for the party, underscoring its safe status amid limited Republican infrastructure. Biss's win consolidated party support in a competitive primary field, while the GOP nominee faces steep structural barriers including fundraising gaps and historical base rates for challengers in D+20-plus districts. Upsets could stem from late scandals, national midterm waves, or turnout anomalies, though these remain low-probability scenarios.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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