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Politik·Trump

Wie oft werden die USA im März Somalia angreifen?

Market icon
Politik·Trump

Wie oft werden die USA im März Somalia angreifen?

Apr 4

Apr 4

6-9 96%

10-13 2.8%

≤5 <1%

14-17 <1%

Polymarket

$763,346 Vol.

6-9 96%

10-13 2.8%

≤5 <1%

14-17 <1%

Polymarket

$763,346 Vol.

≤5

$367,197 Vol.

<1%

6-9

$27,994 Vol.

96%

10-13

$37,857 Vol.

3%

14-17

$180,623 Vol.

<1%

18-21

$97,312 Vol.

<1%

22+

$52,363 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the number of independent incidents of US-initiated drone, missile, or air strikes on the soil of Somalia that occur between March 1 and March 31, 2026, and are announced by the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) by April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count, regardless of whether they land in the listed country’s territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. An incident of a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike refers to any strike or series of strikes described by AFRICOM as a contiguous incident in a single region. Each AFRICOM press release describing a strike or series of strikes will count as one incident, unless AFRICOM explicitly distinguishes incidents as separate strike events. For example, the strikes on January 25-26, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36183/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) and January 12, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36174/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) would have counted as single incidents, even though they included multiple individual strikes. The date of a qualifying strike incident will be determined by the date provided by AFRICOM. Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM to have occurred at least partially in the listed period will count (e.g. a strike incident announced to have occurred from February 28-March 1, 2026, would count). If the date of an announced strike is not released by AFRICOM, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine the timing of a strike incident. In this case, a strike will be considered to have occurred in the specified period if it is determined that it occurred in that period, in Eastern Time (timeframes partially, but not fully, in this period will count). Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM after April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET will not count, regardless of the timing of the strike. This market will remain open until April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by that time, it will not count, regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place. The primary resolution source for this market will be the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) (https://www.africom.mil/media-gallery/press-releases); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to determine the timing of an announced strike incident.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 6-9 U.S. airstrikes in Somalia for March, reflecting U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) confirmations of seven distinct operations targeting al-Shabaab and ISIS-Somalia as of the latest March 29 announcement, primarily clustered in early-to-mid month around the Golis Mountains and near Mogadishu. This pace aligns with the Trump administration's escalated counterterrorism posture since January, which has driven record strike volumes through February but tapered in late March amid reduced reported militant activity. With March 31 approaching and no new operations signaled in the past two weeks, probabilities exceed 90% for this range; challenges would require late disclosures of additional unreported airstrikes or a sudden al-Shabaab escalation prompting emergency action before month-end resolution.

Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 6-9 U.S. airstrikes in Somalia for March, reflecting U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) confirmations of seven distinct operations targeting al-Shabaab and ISIS-Somalia as of the latest March 29 announcement, primarily clustered in early-to-mid month around the Golis Mountains and near Mogadishu. This pace aligns with the Trump administration's escalated counterterrorism posture since January, which has driven record strike volumes through February but tapered in late March amid reduced reported militant activity. With March 31 approaching and no new operations signaled in the past two weeks, probabilities exceed 90% for this range; challenges would require late disclosures of additional unreported airstrikes or a sudden al-Shabaab escalation prompting emergency action before month-end resolution.

Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
This market will resolve according to the number of independent incidents of US-initiated drone, missile, or air strikes on the soil of Somalia that occur between March 1 and March 31, 2026, and are announced by the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) by April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count, regardless of whether they land in the listed country’s territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. An incident of a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike refers to any strike or series of strikes described by AFRICOM as a contiguous incident in a single region. Each AFRICOM press release describing a strike or series of strikes will count as one incident, unless AFRICOM explicitly distinguishes incidents as separate strike events. For example, the strikes on January 25-26, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36183/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) and January 12, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36174/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) would have counted as single incidents, even though they included multiple individual strikes. The date of a qualifying strike incident will be determined by the date provided by AFRICOM. Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM to have occurred at least partially in the listed period will count (e.g. a strike incident announced to have occurred from February 28-March 1, 2026, would count). If the date of an announced strike is not released by AFRICOM, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine the timing of a strike incident. In this case, a strike will be considered to have occurred in the specified period if it is determined that it occurred in that period, in Eastern Time (timeframes partially, but not fully, in this period will count). Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM after April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET will not count, regardless of the timing of the strike. This market will remain open until April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by that time, it will not count, regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place. The primary resolution source for this market will be the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) (https://www.africom.mil/media-gallery/press-releases); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to determine the timing of an announced strike incident.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 6-9 U.S. airstrikes in Somalia for March, reflecting U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) confirmations of seven distinct operations targeting al-Shabaab and ISIS-Somalia as of the latest March 29 announcement, primarily clustered in early-to-mid month around the Golis Mountains and near Mogadishu. This pace aligns with the Trump administration's escalated counterterrorism posture since January, which has driven record strike volumes through February but tapered in late March amid reduced reported militant activity. With March 31 approaching and no new operations signaled in the past two weeks, probabilities exceed 90% for this range; challenges would require late disclosures of additional unreported airstrikes or a sudden al-Shabaab escalation prompting emergency action before month-end resolution.

Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 6-9 U.S. airstrikes in Somalia for March, reflecting U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) confirmations of seven distinct operations targeting al-Shabaab and ISIS-Somalia as of the latest March 29 announcement, primarily clustered in early-to-mid month around the Golis Mountains and near Mogadishu. This pace aligns with the Trump administration's escalated counterterrorism posture since January, which has driven record strike volumes through February but tapered in late March amid reduced reported militant activity. With March 31 approaching and no new operations signaled in the past two weeks, probabilities exceed 90% for this range; challenges would require late disclosures of additional unreported airstrikes or a sudden al-Shabaab escalation prompting emergency action before month-end resolution.

Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wie oft werden die USA im März Somalia angreifen?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 6 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „6-9" mit 96%, gefolgt von „10-13" mit 3%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 96¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 96% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Wie oft werden die USA im März Somalia angreifen?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $763.3K generiert, seit der Markt am Feb 26, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wie oft werden die USA im März Somalia angreifen?" ist „6-9" mit 96%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 96% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „10-13" mit 3%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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