**Todd Blanche’s nomination as Attorney General, formally sent to the Senate on June 8 after he became acting AG in April, faces a narrow path to confirmation in a chamber with roughly 53 Republicans.** His prior 52–46 confirmation as deputy attorney general sets a baseline, yet several GOP senators on the Judiciary Committee are withholding support pending further assurances on issues including a disputed compensation fund and institutional independence. A July 15 hearing is scheduled, with committee advancement likely requiring near-unanimous Republican backing if Democrats oppose. Traders price 55 or 56 votes highest while assigning substantial probability to no vote or withdrawal by year-end, reflecting uncertainty over whether Blanche can consolidate enough Republican support to clear both committee and floor hurdles before procedural or political friction intervenes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert54 94%
53 3.3%
58+ 3.3%
≤46 1.2%
≤46
1%
47
1%
48
1%
49
-
50
45%
51
47%
52
-
53
3%
54
94%
55
-
56
-
57
43%
58+
3%
Keine Abstimmung bis 31. Dez./Zurückgezogen
-
54 94%
53 3.3%
58+ 3.3%
≤46 1.2%
≤46
1%
47
1%
48
1%
49
-
50
45%
51
47%
52
-
53
3%
54
94%
55
-
56
-
57
43%
58+
3%
Keine Abstimmung bis 31. Dez./Zurückgezogen
-
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
No attempts by a legislator to change their vote after the vote has been closed shall be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 9, 2026, 10:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
No attempts by a legislator to change their vote after the vote has been closed shall be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Todd Blanche’s nomination as Attorney General, formally sent to the Senate on June 8 after he became acting AG in April, faces a narrow path to confirmation in a chamber with roughly 53 Republicans.** His prior 52–46 confirmation as deputy attorney general sets a baseline, yet several GOP senators on the Judiciary Committee are withholding support pending further assurances on issues including a disputed compensation fund and institutional independence. A July 15 hearing is scheduled, with committee advancement likely requiring near-unanimous Republican backing if Democrats oppose. Traders price 55 or 56 votes highest while assigning substantial probability to no vote or withdrawal by year-end, reflecting uncertainty over whether Blanche can consolidate enough Republican support to clear both committee and floor hurdles before procedural or political friction intervenes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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